Merged Profile

Below is the result from a 4 day merged profile as this is where we most recently have consolidated during holiday trade. The Value area high of this merge is 872.50 and the Value area low is 59.50. You may also notice that the 863.50 price has had the most trade through so far. This chart doesn't include today's trading. I think that 59.50 - 63.50 is the area we need to beat for any upside to take hold as we have the Va low and that Volume node. Current overnight high is 73.50 so it was fairly close to the merged VA high of 72.50.

In today's trading we have single prints created to the downside and through that high volume node. I'm skeptical because of the holidays and low volume but as most know we will trend many times after consolidations. I'm not sure if this counts. Anyway it's been fun firing up the old MP software for a change.

To make a long story longer: That 859.50 - 863.50 is the critical zone to watch.

Thanks Kool..

here is the updated chart...I've had some data problems but I think they are resolved now. I'm a bit disappointed in this longer term profile so far as this longer term one didn't do what I thought it would. Certainly not a reason to give up on the profiles but you may remember I thought we would back and fill above that 866 area to round out the Bell curve and fill in those holes and then make a "substantial" move in some direction. The breakout I guess already happened.

For me so far these longer term profiles are best used to find the longer term key numbers. The shape of the profile may not be as important but we still can't deny that this decline originated from that high volume node of 866. I'm a newbie at the longer term stuff but I'm learning alot. Sure wish I would have been short from 866 though...here is the chart..

Good point, Bruce. Now im wondering if that 830 vol. node will be the next magnet on the next rally phase, which will surely come sooner or later.

Bruce,
If I may here are my 2¢ worth on long term distribution profiles. They give tremendously valuable information for the period covered. The only use they are to the day and short term swing trader is when prices are close to key reference areas (KRAs).

More valuable to these traders I think are the distribution profiles of the last 5, 10 and 20 days. On page 14 of this thread I posted such a chart. In the ensuing days prices obviously could not sustain a break above the 774 - 777 area so prices had no place to go but down. The heavy selling in the final hour on 2/25/08 after an up side range extension underlined the probability that prices were going to go lower.

Back to your long term profile chart, should the market put in an interm low in the Fibonacci projected area of 690 (and it is a big if) the importance of your long term chart will become extremely useful as prices move higher. Then the KRAs you have illustrated - 751, 767, 791, 830, 866 and 891 become extremely important to the short term/day trader. Each KRA will be a potential low risk opportunity to go short, or, to add to positions if prices blow through any of those levels on increased volume. Then prices are very likely to make their way to the next higher KRA.

If the Elliott wave/ Fibonacci trader is correct that 690 +/- is a wave five low then a correction to the wave 4 high is highly probable. Right now that wave 4 high is our KRA @ 897.

I post another 5,10 & 20 day VA overlay chart as guide to this weeks trading. Obviously the VAL low of the past 5 - 20 days @ 734 - 739 is now to be considered as potential resistance to any immediate up side correction.

So Bruce if you go on a vacation and don't contrinute for awhile you have already given us a blue print for a fifth wave correction by posting the very informative long term distribution profile. I for one greatly appreciate that.


Thanks.

I am having broker problems ( first time in 3 years since I switched to transAct) and 2 of my monitors are down. But I would like to just share some thoughts on what Bruce said about the longer term shapes. What I do Is start the first trading day of every month to the last day of the month. The first thing I do is watch the weekly IB then the monthly and then after that monitor for any range extension which there always is, is it accepting the new prices for the month?? Or is volume drying up and heading back to the higher volume areas? But I use shorter time frames to confirm, so longer term profiles are not much good on there own. I view the month as I do the day, I want to know what kind of month we are in. If we keep making lows then that carries lots of weight with me. btw great short from todays IB anyone get own it?

This is NOT a merged profile, But the way I use it deals with the merged profile....Markets made a low lower than last months low, then gapped down away from monthly value then broke out running away from last months VAL.....

This is way off topic, but very important to me. I had two monitor video cards go out on me and my market DOM is in one of those screens But I can't get my mouse over there and every time I open a new one the stupid thing goes over to the other monitor thats blank. The problem is in the computer chip any ideas to get that DOM in a working window????

thanks for all the feedback and advice..I'll have more to say later...I can't help on that Joe...you'd think with 10 years experience at IBM I'd be a techical brain but unfortunately I got stuck in main frame applications.........I'll ask around for ya though......I'm on the hunt for long trades down here as the weekly projections are just about there.........I did sell the hour brreak Joe but covered at 711 and 709 as I had "sure fire" numbers there...that didn't fire off the matket to the upside....weekly S2 is at 701 FWIW !!!

I took it off at 711 too....I can't trade well w/o my DOM

long off 05.50.....I've been messing with VWAP.........I want new freakin Highs on the day.....before 699 prints....

Only two working..12.50 is first area of concern for me

this has something to do with merged profiles......I ran a VWAP bands on the weekly.....anything below the 3rd SD of 711 needs to be bouth with confirmed price action........inspired by Jperl on TraderLaboratory....fascinating stuff

We had a break out up on yesterdays high Volume fed announcement.....now we need to see if we can attract Volume above...my feeling is that they will fail on this breakout and we will get daily closes back below 867.....Sure hope I'm wrong for the longer term players like myself....I'll get a chart later