Does anyone really make money trading futures?

Does anyone really make money trading futures?

I am just wondering.

I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.

I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.

For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.

I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.

Thanks in advance for any response.

quote:

---

Originally posted by trader1512


mr martinez must be having a good laugh over all the fools who continue to attempt to present reasonable responses to his negativity. no one is going to convince him of anything. he is full of negativity and really needs to get a life.

no matter what or how you respond he will respond with a negative so why respond.

---

I agree 1512 that negativity doesn't help one in life. (I think Mr. Martinez mentioned he has traded several years and hasn't made a dime. I doubt I would continue an activity that takes me time and produces no returns -unless I was convinced things were going to change.)

For myself the bottom line is the saying:
"If you believe something is possible or if you believe something is not possible, then you are probably right."

I believe with a good plan, a positive attitude, hard work and perseverance almost anything is possible.

Having said that, I am finding day trading harder that position trading in securities. However, I knew it would be and I realize I am climbing a steep mountain. I know I can achieve it and I will.

As to getting off the list it's under subscriptions:
http://www.mypivots.com/forum/subscription_list.asp

hope it helps!

quote:

---

Originally posted by jimkane

I think your sentiment is shared by all, trader1512. It got so bad that a separate topic was even created for mmartinez (http://www.mypivots.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=4513) so that he could interact with those that, for whatever reasons, wanted to keep going on and on forever about this. We see now that that thread is inactive, and he's back in here, with the same exact comments. It's his sworn mission in life to save us all, and nothing short of DT is going to stop that.

---

Yeah Jim, that was partly my suggestion on pages 37 and 38. Might be worth re-reading 'em. Been away for a while. When I hopped back on the site and clicked this thread I thought, "Holy smokes, here we go again."

This thing's like the energizer rabit ... 40+ pages and it keeps going and going and going. Wow, what a time suck that fit on that other thread better. Why oh why has mmartinez non-trading dude guy skittered back aboard this ship?!? That "new" thread that he started at Guy's prompting better fit the intent and spirit of mmartinez's postings and discussion.

If it went inactive and/or died on the vine ... well, that speaks volumes. And, it was truly different from what is reflected by the title of THIS thread. Anyway, hope all have been doing well!!

quote:

---

Originally posted by trader1512

I dont know what is bothering me more, the fact that i cant figure out how to get off of the auto notification from this ridiculous posting ...

---

I can unsubscribe you from it. Just reply to this and I'll do so. Or just do it from here:
http://www.mypivots.com/forum/subscription_list.asp
as blue suggested.

I haven't shut this down because some people find value in it. We are working on some new features of the forum that will allow you to rate your fellow traders and that should allow us to lock out members who negatively impact the forum.

Gentlemen

the topic of this thread is "Does anyone make money trading futures." If you're looking for positive statements on your trading hobby/career, then there's plenty of other threads that I never post in. Those of you who don't like hearing the "negativity" perhaps should consider confining your reading to those threads if this one annoys you so much.

To clear something up: I don't trade anymore because I arrived at the conclusion that it is pointless. I truly am convinced that there are solid reasons that trading is not a reasonable or lucrative endeavor. I feel bad for people who have been led to believe otherwise and will waste money and time chasing something that won't reward them. That's why I post here.

You know, I spent a long time and a lot of wasted money trading before I ever heard about things like "random walk" / Brownian motion. When I first heard about it, it sounded sufficiently noteworthy as to warrant investigation. Especially considering the source it came from - one of the Goldman VPs. I immediately started looking into it. That's because of the way I think. If there's legitimate obstacles to trading, I want to know about it. If they turned out to be not legitimate, then I would have continued trading. But my research and discussions with a lot of people convinced me. It then make perfect sense why I nor anybody else was making money and/or doomed to a cycle of making it/giving it all back.

A lot of people post things on the internet - especially complaining and whining - because they've got nothing better to do. This is not the case here. I consider it worthwhile to spend a little time warning folks about trading because if someone had warned me early on, it would have saved me time and money and I hope I can do the same for someone.

I know most of you don't agree with me. Okay, fine. It doesn't bother me. I hope the trading works out for you in the long run and I really mean that.

Certainly fair enough M. On that note, thread closed? Moderators?

quote:

---

Originally posted by mmartinez

Gentlemen

the topic of this thread is "Does anyone make money trading futures." If you're looking for positive statements on your trading hobby/career, then there's plenty of other threads that I never post in. Those of you who don't like hearing the "negativity" perhaps should consider confining your reading to those threads if this one annoys you so much.

To clear something up: I don't trade anymore because I arrived at the conclusion that it is pointless. I truly am convinced that there are solid reasons that trading is not a reasonable or lucrative endeavor. I feel bad for people who have been led to believe otherwise and will waste money and time chasing something that won't reward them. That's why I post here.

You know, I spent a long time and a lot of wasted money trading before I ever heard about things like "random walk" / Brownian motion. When I first heard about it, it sounded sufficiently noteworthy as to warrant investigation. Especially considering the source it came from - one of the Goldman VPs. I immediately started looking into it. That's because of the way I think. If there's legitimate obstacles to trading, I want to know about it. If they turned out to be not legitimate, then I would have continued trading. But my research and discussions with a lot of people convinced me. It then make perfect sense why I nor anybody else was making money and/or doomed to a cycle of making it/giving it all back.

A lot of people post things on the internet - especially complaining and whining - because they've got nothing better to do. This is not the case here. I consider it worthwhile to spend a little time warning folks about trading because if someone had warned me early on, it would have saved me time and money and I hope I can do the same for someone.

I know most of you don't agree with me. Okay, fine. It doesn't bother me. I hope the trading works out for you in the long run and I really mean that.

---

Well said mmartinez, but I think the counter arguments you incur are not from expressing your point of view, but from denying others the same courtesy.

Above you list the reasons that formed your opinion ( Random Walk, Discussions with a lot of people)and you are entitled to it. However, others may have read different books and may have spoken with other people as the basis for their opinion. In every instance you dismiss any conclusion that differs from your own.

I understand that Blanket Statements such as yours are hard to defend, but you have shown me no evidence that you have ever stopped to consider or research any suggestion put before you on this forum (aside from the research you did previously that led you to your conclusion).

You are very polite and respectful when you post, but I think that the animosity that people here may have for you stems from the points I've listed above.

It would be interesting to know how many people read "Random Walk" and then decided to quit trading vs. those who read it and went on to become successful traders.

Best to All

well said MYPTO.

thank you day trader for providing me the direction on how to stop recieving the email notifications from this thread.

my final thoughts:

i am happy for you mr martinez that you found trading was not for you. i appreciate all of the data and opinions you have provided. this has prompted others to attempt to respond with thier opinions and data for those of us who look to this forum for insight and research data to produce our own opinions.

where you fall short in your agenda is that as was already said, you dont allow for others to share thier opinions without you attempting to shoot them down.

i truly dont believe that is the purpose of this forum and is certainly not the reason i look to it. i believe this is for the sharing of ideas not the continuation of an individual agenda.

trading like any other endeavor which can produce rewards from your efforts is an intense and time consuming affair. You will not make a million dollars at the retail level but there are few and far between any endeavors that you can accomplish that. what you will do is learn a lot about yourself and whether it is an endeavor suited to you. there is a reasonable chance to make some money and depending on your level of interest perhaps even a living.

Its because of this that i find your constant repetitive statements to be offensive. I am sorry you have failed at this. That does not mean that i or others will not succeed. However, you insist on attempting to convince us we will not. i think it is disingenuous of you to make the statement that in essence you are trying to save us from ourselves.

whatever book you have read or whatever experience you have had is yours alone and should not be forced on others by your unwillingness to accept alternative views which is really the way your postings read.

and with that folks, i say good nite and good trading.

The unfortunate truth is, for a large percentage of people that attempt trading futures, some of the points mmartinez makes are applicable to them on an individual basis.

There is a long list of possible reasons why an individual does not trade profitably over time. Some of which are related to the way the market works (mmartinez's randomness), and others of which are related to the individual's inexperience and incorrect behavior.

Trading futures has a steep and often expensive learning curve. For these reasons most individuals who attempt this endeavor "flame out" before achieving consistent profitability. Each individual failure can be retrospectively analyzed and explained rationally.

A point where I do not agree with mmartinez is his declarative statements that given enough time market randomness always and without exception wins out in the end and every trader will eventually fail.These definitive statements imply to me a 100% failure rate. In terms of symantics, I need to qualify the word "always" with "almost always". If we say 97% or 98% of retail futures traders fail, then we are in agreement.

In my view of the world, when we are talking about market randomness, we are talking about one aspect of trading, that being the concept of having an "edge". For me, an edge is an objective statistical probability associated with some trading method. The randomness of the market affects this probability over time, where a method will shift into and back out of favor. So the fact is the probability of a given edge is not static, but rather because of the way the markets actually work the probability associated with an edge is dynamic over time. Also, what I have found is this dynamic probability is more like a binary switch than a nice smooth continuous or gradual curve. This phenomenon can be hard on the psychology of a trader, when their edge suddenly stops working and the probability flips over (the win% becomes the loss%, and visa-versa). The edge falls into a losing streak and significant equity curve drawdown episode is experienced. When this happens, often we see the inexperienced trader lose faith in their method and head off into the desert in search of the holy grail...

Hey Martinez

Assuming you have given away trading...may I ask that you show us what Methodologies and setups you were using to trade including entry and exit points along with MM principles. I ask this as I think it would add a different tact to the discussion. I think it would be educational for all to see and learn from.

Best
John

One last comment please. There is a trader in another room that is short esu9 from 1001.00.
I ask him yeaterday 9/16 if he was still short.; he said he was.
I don't agree with Mr. Martinez, but this trader may be one who would fit in the group
MM is speaking of.
So now the question is why would this trader stay short and lose this much? He didn't
say nor did I ask how many cars he was short.

I consistently profit from futures/futures options, but it took me a long time to figure out the best way for me to do so.

While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.

Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.

I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.

Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.

That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.

A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.

-PDG