Does anyone really make money trading futures?

Does anyone really make money trading futures?

I am just wondering.

I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.

I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.

For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.

I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.

Thanks in advance for any response.

Vigorous debate is great here. But Jim Kane is offering you mmartinez (as best he can as far as I can tell), a way to simply find out through documentation (or the best and most legitimate accounting), a trading record showing trading success as he defines it. He's spelled it out in a pretty straightforward fashion.

If you KNOW that no one makes money (as you've reiterated time and time again) ... then I ask again, "WHY ARE YOU STILL HERE," in this community. Academic argumentation of mental gymnastics at this point accomplishes nothing inside the mypivots community ... unless you have an agenda that you've yet to elaborate upon.

This is a great community of traders of all stripes ... I'd suggest you join the drama on other sites such as elitetrader and begin a thread there.

If you have something of substance to offer folks here beyond "no one makes money trading" then I'd seriously want to take a gander at your input and ideas ... always looking to learn and grow and evolve with the markets with exposure to new and old inputs from those in the trading arena.

Respectfully,

MM

I'll try to see if I can get some documentated trade history from Don Miller or whoever else, and if I do I'll discuss it here.

quote:

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Originally posted by mmartinez

"No" does hold true for everyone.

How do I disprove people's "yes" results? Well, for starters give me the results. I don't have them in front of me.

Anyone can make the claim that they are a successful trader. But why is it no one ever provides their actual lifetime trading record?

I want newbies and beginning traders to be aware of what they're getting into. There's too many other people providing fantasy stories about trading.

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M, I have not read all your posts yet but did you answer my question of how does the high/low happen 30% of the time in the first half hour ? If it is random it ought to be only 8% of the time...


The reason I didn't show you my results is that you said 4 years of profitability is not long enough, and you also said my profitable options trading I did from 2000-2002 was not long enough, even back then when I was 19 I was making 16grand a month for something like 23 months in a row, I had a bad week in a bad month and panicked, but did by no means lose anything near what I made.....I think I lost 5grand on several trades in a row. so I took a couple year sabbatical from trading and went into homebuilding. and you act as though I have done this through 1 or 2 trades, I trade almost every day and have multiple accounts. I was profitable from 2000-2002 in options and extremely profitable from 2004-present. So let me know how long it takes to beat randomness and I post some results, although even broker statements can be counterfeited so I don't see the since in this?? But If you want 10 year results I don't have them I'll chime back in 2015 when I do....

Go read mini IB markets are not random.

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Originally posted by CharterJoe

M, I have not read all your posts yet but did you answer my question of how does the high/low happen 30% of the time in the first half hour ? If it is random it ought to be only 8% of the time...

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Do you know what tomorrow's high/low will be?

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The reason I didn't show you my results is that you said 4 years of profitability is not long enough,

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you know, there's quite a few professional traders who show profitability after three or four years. Hence a ten year timeframe is a better benchmark, because they general all lose it before those ten years. This is a complete generalization - it depends on how many trades you do, how much leverage you use, etc.

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and you also said the profitable options trading I did from 2000-2002 was not long enough, [\quote]

you're right. but it depends on how many round turn trades you're doing. the higher the number, the quicker we can expect to see accurate results.

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even back then when I was 19 I was making 16grand a month for months in a row,

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not unusual

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I had a bad week in a bad month and panicked, but did by no means lose anything near what I made...so I took a couple year sabbatical from trading and went into homebuilding.
[\quote]

kinda reiterates what I've been saying

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and you act as though I have done this through 1 or 2 trades, I trade almost every day and have multiple accounts. I was extremely profitable from 2000-2002 in options
[\quote]

how many total round turn trades did you complete in 2000-2002?

[quote]and profitable from 2004-present. So let me know how long it takes to beat randomness and I post some results,

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Start by giving me an accurate number of round turn trades during the aforementioned periods.

[quote]although even broker statements can be counterfeited so I don't see the since in this??

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I'm not concerned about that.

[quote]Go read mini IB markets are not random.

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all the markets are random (for all practical purposes)

thanks for your discussion. let's continue it
m

I'll give you my ES analysis for tomorrow free.

WHEN we trade above 947 tomorrow the low will be what it is at that time with a high around 961. RSI high around 72 when the ES is at 961. Looking for bounce off RSI 50. *Note upward channel in the RSI 30min, looking to buy some SPY puts at RSI 71.5-72.

Zones were you can "scalp" $100 bucks per contract. Long ES at 947.25.

This is my "plan" does this mean if this doesn't happen will I lose NO it does not mean that. This is what I am expecting. But in a way it is lose/lose for me because it can happen exactly as I stated and you say HA needs more than one day, or It can do the opposite and I will still make money and you'll say "I told you so, markets are random"

So I stuck my neck out on the line, now you do the same and answer my question, how in the world does the ES make a high/low 30% of the time in the first half hour when one 1/2 hour ought to be only a 8% odds of doing so.

No what I said did not confirm what you said I made over 300K and lost 15k how in the world is that random.

As far as 2000-2002 # of trades I was always in the market with a basket of about 5 stock option trades with 10-50 cons a hit. I was always in the market, no margin, no leverage, 100% cash. Probably 10 option trades a week. At least one open close a day.

Now I trade 1 ES for every $20,000 cash, so that is reasonable margin that would be like 2 to 1 margin. With at least 5 trades a day and 10-20 in the NQ.

Martinez,

I love Ford Motor Co. Its my favorite stock for a number of years. This is a post in regard to when highs and lows are made.

LOD=low of day
HOD=high of day

5/11 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/12 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/13 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/14 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/15 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/18 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/19 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/20 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/21 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/22 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/26 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/27 HOD was 3nd 15min bar
5/28 LOD was 4th 15min bar
5/29 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
6/01 LOD was 1st 15min bar
6/02 LOD was 1st 15min bar
6/03 HOD was 1st 15min bar
6/04 LOD was 1st 15min bar
6/05 HOD was 1st 15min bar
6/08 LOD was 1st 15min bar
6/09 HOD was 1st 15min bar



See what your missing being so negative LOL? I didn't skip a single day...so how does that fit into your random walk theory? 100% of the last months hi/low happened in the first hour and you don't think thats hidden order? And 75% happened in the first 15min (if your breathing your jaw ought to be dropped) MARKETS ARE NOT RANDOM!

SPY

5/11 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/12 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/13 HOD was 5th 15min bar
5/14 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/15 HOD was 5th 15min bar
5/18 LOD was 3rd 15min bar (one tick below low of 1st 15min bar)
5/19 LOD was 3rd 15min bar
5/20 HOD was 4th 15min bar
5/21 HOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/22 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/26 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/27 HOD was 3rd 15min bar
5/28 LOD was 3rd 15min bar
5/29 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
6/01 LOD was 1st 15min bar
6/02 HOD was 4th 15min bar
6/03 HOD was 1st 15min bar
6/04 LOD was 3rd 15min bar
6/05 HOD was 1st 15min bar
last 2 days hi/lo was not in the first hour

... I love this thread...

... Jim your like a moth drawn to the flame...

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Originally posted by jimkane

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Originally posted by mmartinez

...I take it a step further and say it's imposible to maintain a positive P/L over time, therefore one should never start trading to begin with.

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And with that, I once again quit my discussion in this thread. It is pointless, JBW and the rest said it better than I ever could, so, as always, I'm pulling the plug and stopping my loss here, again. I think, though, overall, this has been a good discussion, because I think the readers do in fact see what is going on here, and can easily make their own informed decisions based on this. Bye.

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AA my #2

5/11 HOD and LOD was 1st and 2nd bar
5/12 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/13 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/14 LOD was 2nd 15min bar
5/15 LOD and HOD was 1st 30min
5/18 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/19 LOD was 1st 15min bar
5/20 HOD was 4th 15min bar
5/21 HOD was 1st 15min bar
5/22 HOD was 1st bar
5/26 LOD was 1st bar
5/27 HOD was 4th bar
5/28 HOD was 1st bar
5/29 HOD was 1st bar
6/01 LOD was 1st bar
6/02 LOD was 1st bar
6/03 HOD was 1st bar
6/04 LOD was 2nd bar
6/05 AA went over a nickel over the high in the 1st bar and that was the HOD
6/08 LOD was 2nd bar
6/09 LOD was a dime below 1st 15min low. But no LOD in first hour.


There are 26 15min bars in a day, how can the mass majority hit in the first 2 in a random market?

I consistently profit from futures/futures options, but it took me a long time to figure out the best way for me to do so.

While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.

Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.

I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.

Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.

That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.

A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.

-PDG