Does anyone really make money trading futures?
Does anyone really make money trading futures?
I am just wondering.
I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.
I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.
For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.
I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.
Thanks in advance for any response.
I am just wondering.
I know I don't. I have tried all the indicators and the chat room gurus, and none of them make money.
I have a suspicion that a lot of the chat rooms for emini trading are just for hobbyists and market enthusiasts and not for serious traders trying to make a business out of trading.
For any new traders out there please be very cautious of paying anyone to mentor you or signing up for training or a chat room. From what I have seen the only people making money in these deals is the mentor, the chat room owner or the author of the training manual.
I would love to hear from you if you are a successful trader making 20% off your account or better over the past year. I know only 5 to 10 percent of traders are supposed to be successful, but I am beginning to think that zero percent of traders are successful over the long haul. Certainly anyone can have a streak of luck and rack up a few good months where they dramatically increase their account size, but these people are normally big risk takers and eventually they blow out their accounts by taking the exact same risks that help double their accounts in the first place.
Thanks in advance for any response.
For the benefit of the audience, would you a provide a link to these? And to answer your question, if such statements are produced, of course I will say that they are making money. I won't qualify it.
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
How about all the audited one-man hedge funds (I once heard there were 14,000 of them, 'hedgies') that do provide the statements. Many of these are not inside guys, they are just regular guys. A guy I know started a hedge fund after trading his own account. I know several who have done that. All these guys didn't really make money those years? You're saying not one living person ever traded and then quit ahead? None?
Okay, here's what I ask. Then I'm done because this is wasting valuable time. I want to know, in advance, what you will say if statements are produced. Will you admit that person is making money?
Let me say something:
I would love to see proof of a 10+ year successful trading record. I highly encourage anyone who has such a thing to make it available.
In light of such a proof, not only will I admit that the trader appears to have implemented a successful method, but it will make me rethink my ideas but I will probably need to get back into trading.
I'm waiting with baited breath.
I would love to see proof of a 10+ year successful trading record. I highly encourage anyone who has such a thing to make it available.
In light of such a proof, not only will I admit that the trader appears to have implemented a successful method, but it will make me rethink my ideas but I will probably need to get back into trading.
I'm waiting with baited breath.
Here's an example, m. I steer people to my website to read my free articles. One has to do with simulation trading. I suggest that no one even try any real trading until they have demonstated that they can at least show their plan has a positive edge and that they can apply that edge without the upcoming emotional issues when real money is used. After that phase I suggest they trade very small money, 100 shares of a lower priced stock at the most. Only gradually, over time, work up to any greater amount, and only with demonstrated consistent results. This process may take five years. Can't handle that? Don't try to be a trader. I've been clear about all this. Don't move ahead to the next step until you've proven yourself at the previous step.
Now, instead of going to Vegas for fun a person decides to take that same small sum of fun money, and follow a process like I suggest above. The 'worst case' is they would lose the small sum they would have lost in Vegas anyway. This is the only process I would be supportive of. Then just what are you saving people from? If you say plunging with a large amount of money they can't afford to lose and spending money on chartlatan vendors, then we are 100% on the same page. But the attack should be, with the rest of us, on people taking poor approaches and paying charlatans, not on trading as an impossibility. I just don't see who you are saving that we aren't already trying to save.
Now, instead of going to Vegas for fun a person decides to take that same small sum of fun money, and follow a process like I suggest above. The 'worst case' is they would lose the small sum they would have lost in Vegas anyway. This is the only process I would be supportive of. Then just what are you saving people from? If you say plunging with a large amount of money they can't afford to lose and spending money on chartlatan vendors, then we are 100% on the same page. But the attack should be, with the rest of us, on people taking poor approaches and paying charlatans, not on trading as an impossibility. I just don't see who you are saving that we aren't already trying to save.
quote:Please contact Don Miller. His blog is here. If he says he is unwilling to provide statements please write that up in here and let us know.
Originally posted by mmartinez
Let me say something:
I would love to see proof of a 10+ year successful trading record. I highly encourage anyone who has such a thing to make it available.
In light of such a proof, not only will I admit that the trader appears to have implemented a successful method, but it will make me rethink my ideas but I will probably need to get back into trading.
I'm waiting with baited breath.
http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/
good. if you're going to advise someone to trade, this would be the ethical and responsible way to do it.
I take it a step further and say it's imposible to maintain a positive P/L over time, therefore one should never start trading to begin with.
I take it a step further and say it's imposible to maintain a positive P/L over time, therefore one should never start trading to begin with.
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
Here's an example, m. I steer people to my website to read my free articles. One has to do with simulation trading. I suggest that no one even try any real trading until they have demonstated that they can at least show their plan has a positive edge and that they can apply that edge without the upcoming emotional issues when real money is used. After that phase I suggest they trade very small money, 100 shares of a lower priced stock at the most. Only gradually, over time, work up to any greater amount, and only with demonstrated consistent results. This process may take five years. Can't handle that? Don't try to be a trader. I've been clear about all this. Don't move ahead to the next step until you've proven yourself at the previous step.
Now, instead of going to Vegas for fun a person decides to take that same small sum of fun money, and follow a process like I suggest above. The 'worst case' is they would lose the small sum they would have lost in Vegas anyway. This is the only process I would be supportive of. Then just what are you saving people from? If you say plunging with a large amount of money they can't afford to lose and spending money on chartlatan vendors, then we are 100% on the same page. But the attack should be, with the rest of us, on people taking poor approaches and paying charlatans, not on trading as an impossibility. I just don't see who you are saving that we aren't already trying to save.
quote:And with that, I once again quit my discussion in this thread. It is pointless, JBW and the rest said it better than I ever could, so, as always, I'm pulling the plug and stopping my loss here, again. I think, though, overall, this has been a good discussion, because I think the readers do in fact see what is going on here, and can easily make their own informed decisions based on this. Bye.
Originally posted by mmartinez
...I take it a step further and say it's imposible to maintain a positive P/L over time, therefore one should never start trading to begin with.
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
quote:Please contact Don Miller. His blog is here. If he says he is unwilling to provide statements please write that up in here and let us know.
Originally posted by mmartinez
Let me say something:
I would love to see proof of a 10+ year successful trading record. I highly encourage anyone who has such a thing to make it available.
In light of such a proof, not only will I admit that the trader appears to have implemented a successful method, but it will make me rethink my ideas but I will probably need to get back into trading.
I'm waiting with baited breath.
http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/
Done. Here's how I phrased it:
"as per Jim Kane, I am here to request an audited statement of your lifetime trading record. Thank you. mmartinez"
I posted it as a new "comment" in his blog.
Actually you shouldn't quit. If you can provide or lead me to proof in the form of someone's trading record, then I will be happy to admit that I'm wrong.
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
quote:And with that, I once again quit my discussion in this thread. It is pointless, JBW and the rest said it better than I ever could, so, as always, I'm pulling the plug and stopping my loss here, again. I think, though, overall, this has been a good discussion, because I think the readers do in fact see what is going on here, and can easily make their own informed decisions based on this. Bye.
Originally posted by mmartinez
...I take it a step further and say it's imposible to maintain a positive P/L over time, therefore one should never start trading to begin with.
quote:Well, if I got that request worded like that I'd either delete it or comment asking if you were joking. I'll e-mail Don and ask that my name be removed, or post such in there. I guess you don't grasp the concept of making a request in a manner that it would likely be granted. As I said, I'm stopped out on this trade.
Originally posted by mmartinez
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
quote:Please contact Don Miller. His blog is here. If he says he is unwilling to provide statements please write that up in here and let us know.
Originally posted by mmartinez
Let me say something:
I would love to see proof of a 10+ year successful trading record. I highly encourage anyone who has such a thing to make it available.
In light of such a proof, not only will I admit that the trader appears to have implemented a successful method, but it will make me rethink my ideas but I will probably need to get back into trading.
I'm waiting with baited breath.
http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/
Done. Here's how I phrased it:
"as per Jim Kane, I am here to request an audited statement of your lifetime trading record. Thank you. mmartinez"
I posted it as a new "comment" in his blog.
quote:I guess what I said, that I thought was crystal clear, wasn't? Don is one of the best known successful private traders out there, and he's been very willing to discuss his record. He would be the first one I'd make such a request to, if I were on such a quest. My approach, of course, would be respectful and humble, since it would be a big favor to ask someone for such records. I suggested that if he was not willing to provide such records that be reported here so that I can give another suggestion as to who to contact that might be willing to provide such records, or a hedge fund that is now closed that has such records available. Apparently this came across as 'Demand that Don Miller provide audited statements because Jim Kane said so, and provide them now, dammit!' Don Miller wouldn't know me from a box of hammers, no less do all that because he thought I said so. I give up... At least what I said should now be clear?
Originally posted by jimkane
quote:Please contact Don Miller. His blog is here. If he says he is unwilling to provide statements please write that up in here and let us know.
Originally posted by mmartinez
Let me say something:
I would love to see proof of a 10+ year successful trading record. I highly encourage anyone who has such a thing to make it available.
In light of such a proof, not only will I admit that the trader appears to have implemented a successful method, but it will make me rethink my ideas but I will probably need to get back into trading.
I'm waiting with baited breath.
http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/
I consistently profit from futures/futures options, but it took me a long time to figure out the best way for me to do so.
While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.
Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.
I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.
Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.
That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.
A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.
-PDG
While a set of trading rules is very important, I have found that it is just as, maybe even MORE important, to develop "trading callouses" from getting your butt handed to you repeatedly along the way.
Here's the thing: Any set of rules will only work until they don't. It is normal human psychology that there will come a time (again and again) where you deviate from the rules because A) you have had a string of losses, B) you have had a string of wins and now you have a loss and can't believe you're really supposed to "lose this one," C) you get greedy, D) you get scared for whatever reason, or E) any one of a thousand other things that will cause you to screw up.
I had ups and downs for many years until I thought I had it figured out and had a couple of years of really solid profits. I had my own private island picked out :) (not really, but I did have a condo in mind O/N an island). Then came the financial crisis of 2008 and I learned that while I had a generally good strategy, because times were good I had not developed an appropriate risk control system.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars later... (and that didn't take long at all!) I learned the hard way that my strategy was woefully inadequate when the unexpected happened. It took me a while to brush myself off, but eventually I did.
Since sometime in 2009 my cumulative returns are somewhere around 450%. Over the past 9 years I've found that proper risk control continues to be where I tend to fall short, so I've had some choppiness during this time. About two years ago I tightened things up some more to try to make for a smoother equity curve... this mean that, theoretically, my losing months should NOT be as large as in the past, but my winning months will also not be as large as they were in the past.
That's okay though -- even my cumulative success over the past 9-10 years, when averaged out by month, comes to < 2% a month. I suspect that 2% a month, long term, is about where I'll stay, but the ride should just be smoother along the way.
A return like that may or may not be enough for a particular person--it is for me--but keep in mind if you want to shoot for the stars there's a really good chance you're going to eventually crash land back on earth. It really does come down to being adequately capitalized and having a reasonable return be "enough" for you. By all means, trade even with a small account, because you need that experience to get to the point where you'll know what you're doing when you have the larger account. Just don't expect to turn a tiny account into a massive one along the way or you will probably be disappointed.
-PDG
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