Weekly pivot influence on first trading day

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Originally posted by BruceM

...I have a friend who will only trade in the direction of the weekly pivot on the first trading day of the week....he uses it like a magnet...so for today he is only taking longs......his is by observation

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I'm curious about testing the general theory of this. I'm typing as I think...

If we took the week's first trading day's opening price and measured the number of points that it traded in the direction of the weekly pivot point and also the number of points it traded away... We might be able to measure a statistical deviance in the direction that it trades. Problems with this theory are (1) the market has an upward bias in the long term (i.e. not symmetrical (2) Market Profile theory can replace this because we are probably trading towards the weekly Point of Control which is likely to be near the weekly Pivot Point.

Testing is difficult because we need to compute the first trading day of the week in case it is a holiday and also count the number of trading days in the prior week in case of holidays. For example, last week we had 3 trading days in the E-mini S&P500 because of Gerald Ford's day of mourning. This was an unexpected holiday that is not on the calendars.

What I am thinking of is running a test to see if a rolling 5-trading-day pivot point has any influence on the direction of trade for any particular day-of-the-week. For example, are Monday's more likely to be days where the price is "drawn to that pivot like a magnet" rather than any other day of the week. That should be easier to test...

market failed two weeks in a row......this week failed after the failure from new years week....Pips brought it to my attention that we hit the Demark pivot though....FYI

We traded back to the weekly pivot this week

No weekly pivot trade in last weeks real time session although the overnight hit it...

So far this week there has been an overnight trade through the weekly pivot but not the real time session.....yet!!

All the indexes have been trading out of sync with each other this week with respect to their daily and weekly pivots.

No pivot was hit on the weekly in the real time session last week. We gapped below ( traded through it in the overnight) and never came back to it...this is the first time this happened in the past year. A perfect way to end this test!

Bruce

Thanks Bruce!

Absolutely! The past 4 months has enabled me to collect some good data and I will continue to do so. Very good exercise!