Weekly pivot influence on first trading day

quote:

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Originally posted by BruceM

...I have a friend who will only trade in the direction of the weekly pivot on the first trading day of the week....he uses it like a magnet...so for today he is only taking longs......his is by observation

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I'm curious about testing the general theory of this. I'm typing as I think...

If we took the week's first trading day's opening price and measured the number of points that it traded in the direction of the weekly pivot point and also the number of points it traded away... We might be able to measure a statistical deviance in the direction that it trades. Problems with this theory are (1) the market has an upward bias in the long term (i.e. not symmetrical (2) Market Profile theory can replace this because we are probably trading towards the weekly Point of Control which is likely to be near the weekly Pivot Point.

Testing is difficult because we need to compute the first trading day of the week in case it is a holiday and also count the number of trading days in the prior week in case of holidays. For example, last week we had 3 trading days in the E-mini S&P500 because of Gerald Ford's day of mourning. This was an unexpected holiday that is not on the calendars.

What I am thinking of is running a test to see if a rolling 5-trading-day pivot point has any influence on the direction of trade for any particular day-of-the-week. For example, are Monday's more likely to be days where the price is "drawn to that pivot like a magnet" rather than any other day of the week. That should be easier to test...

Sorry Steve I wish I was that advanced..I'm merely following this until we have one years worth of results.....keeps me out of trouble. I'm also experimenting with 2.5 and 5 point numbers bracketing the weekly pivot.

Perhaps someone can do a quick test on continuous contracts and see if the results stand up that way.

Bruce

No problem, Bruce. I started a spreadsheet this week on the YM and I'm thinking of expanding it to the other indices. BTW, the YM didn't trade to the weekly pivot this week either.

cool..thanks for that Steve!

Hey Bruce yes s&p missed by more than 1 pt. However it you take the DeMark pivot it did hit. For safety I use the DeMark and weekly pivot.

To Steve, on the 3 occasions I have tracked the YM over a span of 1.5 months it came with 7-9 tiks of the weekly pivot. Would be interesting to see your results on YM, ER, forex and etc.

I'll start cranking it out and see what I can come up with.

RE: Collection of wekly pivot data. I have been looking at these data daily to see if the weekly pivot holds any significance throughout the week or if only the first day of the week is key. I would like some opinions with respect to collecting the weekly pivot data. Do you think it better to use solely intra-day data or continuous contract data? The way I have been looking at it is during the regular session since I rarely hold positions overnight. My question is should I base my analysis on the full range of data, or are the off-hours normally filled with minimal movement? Of course, I realize the answer is, "It depends". Anyway, just curious to know what the collective feel about this. Thanks in advance.

they hit the weekly pivot on Monday this week. The pivot posted by this site is 1559.83 and current weekly low is 1559.75......very Cool!!

Bruce

Meanwhile, back at the farm...the NQ hasn't hit either the daily or weekly yet this week, but the YM and ES has, and the Russell has yet to to hit the weekly.

Yes Steve,

YM and ES have hit...suprisingly ER did not..but I always watch ES price and see where Russell is in relation to the pivot. If ES hits it first, and russ does not I get out.

But in an earlier post I had 7/8/9 as high area, and since 8th I have shorted, always getting out in the 842/843 area. Since I believe the next 2 days should be down and the pivot on ER should be hit...I am short at 849.90. My target is lower than 843.40 down to the pivot level. Lets see what happens.

What method are you using to formualte your highs and lows? Sounds interesting.

Absolutely! The past 4 months has enabled me to collect some good data and I will continue to do so. Very good exercise!