Weekly pivot influence on first trading day

quote:

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Originally posted by BruceM

...I have a friend who will only trade in the direction of the weekly pivot on the first trading day of the week....he uses it like a magnet...so for today he is only taking longs......his is by observation

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I'm curious about testing the general theory of this. I'm typing as I think...

If we took the week's first trading day's opening price and measured the number of points that it traded in the direction of the weekly pivot point and also the number of points it traded away... We might be able to measure a statistical deviance in the direction that it trades. Problems with this theory are (1) the market has an upward bias in the long term (i.e. not symmetrical (2) Market Profile theory can replace this because we are probably trading towards the weekly Point of Control which is likely to be near the weekly Pivot Point.

Testing is difficult because we need to compute the first trading day of the week in case it is a holiday and also count the number of trading days in the prior week in case of holidays. For example, last week we had 3 trading days in the E-mini S&P500 because of Gerald Ford's day of mourning. This was an unexpected holiday that is not on the calendars.

What I am thinking of is running a test to see if a rolling 5-trading-day pivot point has any influence on the direction of trade for any particular day-of-the-week. For example, are Monday's more likely to be days where the price is "drawn to that pivot like a magnet" rather than any other day of the week. That should be easier to test...

I'm working on the design of a tool for you guys that will make watching clusters easier. Interesting how people often look at clusters of levels.

This would be cool to have..thanks

Yes look forward to it, be intresting.

How cool was that? They brought it up to 1530.25 ( On my data ) and sold it off from there.( so far) ...So they took out the weekly pivot by .75 points on friday this week!!

No trade back to the weekly pivot during the 4 days of trading of the July 4th Holiday

They Traded to the weekly pivot last week...

They took out the weekly pivot today...

Hello Bruce,

You say the weekly pivot was hit today on the s&p futures. I follow the emini s&p and russ. That is ES and Er.

I thought you were refering to the DeMark weekly pivots. The russel according to DeMark was hit yesterday at 849.1, well low was 840.1.

However, the s&p weekly pivot according to Demark is 1537.63 and had not been hit?

So to clarify, Which, weekly pivot are to referring to?

Camarillo?

According to Camarillo, Woodie and Classic...the Weekly pivot point for this week is 1547...which was hit YESTERDAY.

So kindly clarify, which weekly pivot you referring to.

Demark not been hit....Camarilla, et al YES.

My point is just a clarification. For trading purposes...you may have found a simple method to trade to. My email is [email protected]

Thanks.

Bootsy

ps: Bruce, nonethless very good observation.

Hi Boots,
I am refering to the Classic pivot point which is posted on the daily notes page . It was hit on Wednesday the 18th. Hope that clears things up.

Bruce

Hello Bruce,

I sent you an email after my last post elaborating on the observation you have made and how to try to trade effortlessly.

I would like to discuss this topic further. Kindly respond to my email address at [email protected]

One question? Have you been tracking this on the ES since the begginning of the year? That is weekly since Jan 2, 2007?

I have noticed that on ES and ER it seems to work, but on YM and NQ can be a few ticks off....6-10.

Bootsy

Absolutely! The past 4 months has enabled me to collect some good data and I will continue to do so. Very good exercise!