Weekly pivot influence on first trading day

quote:

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Originally posted by BruceM

...I have a friend who will only trade in the direction of the weekly pivot on the first trading day of the week....he uses it like a magnet...so for today he is only taking longs......his is by observation

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I'm curious about testing the general theory of this. I'm typing as I think...

If we took the week's first trading day's opening price and measured the number of points that it traded in the direction of the weekly pivot point and also the number of points it traded away... We might be able to measure a statistical deviance in the direction that it trades. Problems with this theory are (1) the market has an upward bias in the long term (i.e. not symmetrical (2) Market Profile theory can replace this because we are probably trading towards the weekly Point of Control which is likely to be near the weekly Pivot Point.

Testing is difficult because we need to compute the first trading day of the week in case it is a holiday and also count the number of trading days in the prior week in case of holidays. For example, last week we had 3 trading days in the E-mini S&P500 because of Gerald Ford's day of mourning. This was an unexpected holiday that is not on the calendars.

What I am thinking of is running a test to see if a rolling 5-trading-day pivot point has any influence on the direction of trade for any particular day-of-the-week. For example, are Monday's more likely to be days where the price is "drawn to that pivot like a magnet" rather than any other day of the week. That should be easier to test...

The hit the weekly pivot up at 1524.25 just a few minutes ago on Tuesday this week

They hit the weekly pivot today ( Tuesday )after being down at the 1440 area on Monday...Weekly pivot is 1477.50

Correct. Today, the YM, ES, and ER all hit their weekly pivots, but each missed their daily pivots, probably due to the gap up. The NQ, however, after hitting both the weekly and daily pivots for three straight days last week, has now missed them both for four straight days. Pretty streaky as of late.

Thanksgiving week...no weekly pivot hit!!!

Yep, it was pretty ugly this week. NQ was the only one to hit the weekly pivot having went there Monday and Tuesday. It also hit the daily pivot all 4 days. The S&P and YM only hit the daily on Tuesday, while the Russell hit the daily both Tuesday and Wednesday. The ES last hit the weekly pivot on 11/14; 11/15 for the YM and ER2.

they hit the weekly pivot on Monday this week

All the amjor indices hit both the daily and weekly today. It will be interesting to see if we take out the previous low from a couple of months ago. That was when the Fed decided they'd infuse some cash into the system. Definitely time to watch the banks.

looks like they will miss the weekly pivot this week..the market was up in the 1484 area on Monday and traded down to 1462.50 on Tuesday..the weekly pivot as reported here is 1460.50...so they will miss it by 2 points....close!!!

It's going to take a big drop to get there this week...unlikely, but possible.

I'm currently trying to learn how to trade ES and very new at this. So any help would be appreciate. Sorry to ask you guys to go back to basic but what are weekly pivots? how to calculate? when to use it and why is it important?
thx

Absolutely! The past 4 months has enabled me to collect some good data and I will continue to do so. Very good exercise!