Weekly pivot influence on first trading day

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Originally posted by BruceM

...I have a friend who will only trade in the direction of the weekly pivot on the first trading day of the week....he uses it like a magnet...so for today he is only taking longs......his is by observation

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I'm curious about testing the general theory of this. I'm typing as I think...

If we took the week's first trading day's opening price and measured the number of points that it traded in the direction of the weekly pivot point and also the number of points it traded away... We might be able to measure a statistical deviance in the direction that it trades. Problems with this theory are (1) the market has an upward bias in the long term (i.e. not symmetrical (2) Market Profile theory can replace this because we are probably trading towards the weekly Point of Control which is likely to be near the weekly Pivot Point.

Testing is difficult because we need to compute the first trading day of the week in case it is a holiday and also count the number of trading days in the prior week in case of holidays. For example, last week we had 3 trading days in the E-mini S&P500 because of Gerald Ford's day of mourning. This was an unexpected holiday that is not on the calendars.

What I am thinking of is running a test to see if a rolling 5-trading-day pivot point has any influence on the direction of trade for any particular day-of-the-week. For example, are Monday's more likely to be days where the price is "drawn to that pivot like a magnet" rather than any other day of the week. That should be easier to test...

BruceM >>>>Is int thesame as the emini's low I have SPH7-1458.50

Not sure I understand Inventor....? I am talking about Tuesdays day session low. Please clarify when you have time.

Bruce

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Originally posted by inventor

BruceM >>>>Is int thesame as the emini's low I have SPH7-1458.50

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cme website is showing 52.20 for a low on Tuesday.so we haven't traded to the weekly pivot ..Yet!!!! Perhaps this will be the week it doesn't

Bruce

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Originally posted by BruceM

Well yesterday ( Monday )was a holiday and today the S&P emini opened at 1457.25 and traded down to a low so far of 1452.25. The market is currently in the 1460 area. The weekly pivot according to the Daily notes page is 1451.9. Does anyone have the low in the Big contract? Thanks

Bruce

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I was referring to this question (Does anyone have the low in the Big contract? Thanks)

BruceM >>>>Is int the same as the emini's low I have SPH7-1458.50

I guess I misunderstood.

And so we have to wait until Friday for the S&P to actualy trade to it's weekly pivot this week..just keeping a record...so far, so good

Bruce

Today is Monday and the market opened higher and traded down into the weekly pivot. Just for reference.

Bruce

Today is Thursday and both the June contract ( rollover) and the March contract just hit their weekly pivots at 1421 and 1408 respectively...Good place to start shorts I think up here...Gapped them both higher opens...the plus 4 breakout traders are in and the hour breakout players are trying to make some money..perhaps they'll win today.....I'll bet against them...Real point of this is that once again the weekly pivot is traded to...a slight deviation from the original title of this thread

Bruce

I went to edit the previous post but wasn't fast enough so I just wanted to point out that there was Volume and Tick divergences up at this area too which helped pull the trigger....so will it rollover and tank? who knows and who cares!!! Depends how many contracts you trade and how greedy you are.....seems like a test of 1417.75 as per June is a good goal if holding...ok...got side tracked on this thread..nuff said..

Thanks for monitoring this Bruce!

June S&P's hit there weekly Pivot today, Tuesday....

Bruce

Absolutely! The past 4 months has enabled me to collect some good data and I will continue to do so. Very good exercise!