ES Friday 11-21-14

here is how current On looks...I am trading now for the 65.25 retest...beautiful bell curve so far......weekly r3 sits up above Current On high at 2070.75....more later....we have a daily r3 at 70.75 too and an 88% probability band at 72.75...so I am making a zone at 70.75 - 72.75....( 1.28 band at 69.50 ) above there all I have is 95 % band up near 79...my thoughts are that the cash market will need to play with 2075 cash....so that zone is ES I think is in a good spot......I will not be buying up here even if we get small range and even if we are apporaching a good seasonal time.......often Monday after opt Ex aren't the greatest for the bullish side.......we'll see...should be a fun morning...we have some nice zones..my guess is that they will print the 65 area target in RTH.....

buyers could come in very easily at this point... just not sure what can happen

Thanks guys.

Nice trade, Bruce.
NewKid, I have no stats, but I cannot remember seeing 5 back-to-back open drive days.

doing so much babbling I am forgetting my own zones....LOL......a nice way for us all to end the week...hope it keeps moving in the direction YOU need it to go......I'm starting to get paper work together to fund an options account with dough/ td america.... a commercial for dough.com for those who want to learn some good probability options stuff with easy user interface for entering orders......the IB option trader is a nightmare to sell options.......

Originally posted by BruceM

critical zones summary for me

70.50 - 72.75

65 - 66 ...**** big magnet

57.75 - 59 **** spot where the volume came in from O/N and O/N greenies -- R2 today


51-52 ** O/N greenies and day session greenies....here is update to O/N chart with my upper zone lines now snapped

this is current greenies chart

Click image for original size

yeah...no clue and they tried to push out 30 minute low and brought it back up....tricky stuff up here

Originally posted by NewKid

buyers could come in very easily at this point... just not sure what can happen

Bruce, do you use the SD bands in options trading as well? If so, do you create the SD bands on the stock itself and then apply it to options?

that is what I am trying to do with the spy options but also using the delta reading from the software

what do these greenies mean to you? old resistant levels now support?

at the very least they serve as magnets and depending on context they provide some level of support and resistance, though it might be just temporary. again, need to look at it from a bigger picture point of view

in hindsight, i wonder if the following thinking could have been applied this morning.
since we gapped up this high today into unchartered territory, would it have been prudent to hold for the gap close or at least O/N midpoint once we saw that we were not making new highs?

just need to be patient and hold. would be worthwhile to go back and look for such occurences....

I like the idea and in hindsight it might be worth looking into....also look how often we trade and close beyond an 80 % daily band when we open outside of it......or how often we close beyond an r3 on the weekly pivot formula.....the problem I think for most ( or I should really only say for myself) is doing the back testing and also having some way to keep track of the market extreme anomolies.....there seems to be an endless supply of "conditions" and picking the ones to follow and test might be time consuming....for example I used to look at spx closes beyond the 2.5 bollinger band......not many occurrences but the next day usually doesn't drop and close much lower then the previous days low by more than 5- 7 points...many times we have up days or consolidation days following that....but waiting for that to happen and remembering to look for it was hard for me...I guess if you could automate the conditions you could give yourself a framework....I like your thinking Newkid...

Originally posted by NewKid

in hindsight, i wonder if the following thinking could have been applied this morning.
since we gapped up this high today into unchartered territory, would it have been prudent to hold for the gap close or at least O/N midpoint once we saw that we were not making new highs?

just need to be patient and hold. would be worthwhile to go back and look for such occurences....