ES Friday 11-21-14

here is how current On looks...I am trading now for the 65.25 retest...beautiful bell curve so far......weekly r3 sits up above Current On high at 2070.75....more later....we have a daily r3 at 70.75 too and an 88% probability band at 72.75...so I am making a zone at 70.75 - 72.75....( 1.28 band at 69.50 ) above there all I have is 95 % band up near 79...my thoughts are that the cash market will need to play with 2075 cash....so that zone is ES I think is in a good spot......I will not be buying up here even if we get small range and even if we are apporaching a good seasonal time.......often Monday after opt Ex aren't the greatest for the bullish side.......we'll see...should be a fun morning...we have some nice zones..my guess is that they will print the 65 area target in RTH.....

runners trying for 65.75....like them to keep this under 70

small lvn at 67.25 i hope will not get in the way

I hope so too, Bruce.

a distraction video about that LVN..making this .helps me to avoid micro managing runners

This volume at 2069.00: are these buyers?

nice trade alladin and exit point...did i miss something?

there was not much volume at 66.25, not sure if he got a fill or not. i missed my exit by 1 tick. hopefully i wont pay for it

Originally posted by Aladdin

open drive short 2071.75 (O/N high) target 2066.25

close/buy at 2066.25

That is it for me for today.

My open-drive paranoia has served me very well this week: 5 back-to-back days of open open-drives!

Have a nice weekend, everyone.

Aladdin, nice trade!

Do you know of any stats for having 5 open drive days?

flat 66 print...not gonna hold for that tic...as i really had 65 - 66 as a zone

I like the idea and in hindsight it might be worth looking into....also look how often we trade and close beyond an 80 % daily band when we open outside of it......or how often we close beyond an r3 on the weekly pivot formula.....the problem I think for most ( or I should really only say for myself) is doing the back testing and also having some way to keep track of the market extreme anomolies.....there seems to be an endless supply of "conditions" and picking the ones to follow and test might be time consuming....for example I used to look at spx closes beyond the 2.5 bollinger band......not many occurrences but the next day usually doesn't drop and close much lower then the previous days low by more than 5- 7 points...many times we have up days or consolidation days following that....but waiting for that to happen and remembering to look for it was hard for me...I guess if you could automate the conditions you could give yourself a framework....I like your thinking Newkid...

Originally posted by NewKid

in hindsight, i wonder if the following thinking could have been applied this morning.
since we gapped up this high today into unchartered territory, would it have been prudent to hold for the gap close or at least O/N midpoint once we saw that we were not making new highs?

just need to be patient and hold. would be worthwhile to go back and look for such occurences....