ES Friday 11-21-14

here is how current On looks...I am trading now for the 65.25 retest...beautiful bell curve so far......weekly r3 sits up above Current On high at 2070.75....more later....we have a daily r3 at 70.75 too and an 88% probability band at 72.75...so I am making a zone at 70.75 - 72.75....( 1.28 band at 69.50 ) above there all I have is 95 % band up near 79...my thoughts are that the cash market will need to play with 2075 cash....so that zone is ES I think is in a good spot......I will not be buying up here even if we get small range and even if we are apporaching a good seasonal time.......often Monday after opt Ex aren't the greatest for the bullish side.......we'll see...should be a fun morning...we have some nice zones..my guess is that they will print the 65 area target in RTH.....

yes, that is all that greenies chart is...the evolving VPOC's as a sesssion unfolds..so for those of you with good data it will show vpocs that shift higher or lower and where big traders have come in OR where price has stalled and volume has built up over time.

Originally posted by NewKid

Also showing current O/N volume POC @ 65

It would be interesting to know how often we hit the 80% or even 87% band and what happens after we hit it. For example, is it touched in O/N, during the day, near RTH close after a slow crawl, etc

Seeing volume build up at the 68.50 to 69.25 zone. been stalled here for sometime now

my On vpoc just flipped to my 68.75 entry price...my current plan is to leave On entry alone and take additional short trades above 71.75 if it starts printing then use my original entry as a first target...sure would have liked them to just sell it off to that 65 - 66 but will adjust plan accordingly...It's after 9 am now....so a better time to initiate usually

yup, my VPOC shifted to 68.50 as well

market babble for anyone who is already prepared and wants to kill time before the open......at one point I say "edge" but with the bell curves we have an "edge" and a "center"....so I goofed that a bit but the concept is there

I'm hoping they drive out the highs at the open.......that to me would set up better shorts as long as we don't get outside the "zone of death " !!!!

Good morning everyone,

Welcome to another exciting episode of: to gap close or not to gap close?
Also known as: to gap fill or not to gap fill?

O/N inventory is long, so some form of inventory adjustment could take place.

As always, I'm on open-drive alert...

open drive short 2071.75 (O/N high) target 2066.25

As per Dalton: "Any time you fade value you must be right very quickly".

Value is now developing higher.

I like the idea and in hindsight it might be worth looking into....also look how often we trade and close beyond an 80 % daily band when we open outside of it......or how often we close beyond an r3 on the weekly pivot formula.....the problem I think for most ( or I should really only say for myself) is doing the back testing and also having some way to keep track of the market extreme anomolies.....there seems to be an endless supply of "conditions" and picking the ones to follow and test might be time consuming....for example I used to look at spx closes beyond the 2.5 bollinger band......not many occurrences but the next day usually doesn't drop and close much lower then the previous days low by more than 5- 7 points...many times we have up days or consolidation days following that....but waiting for that to happen and remembering to look for it was hard for me...I guess if you could automate the conditions you could give yourself a framework....I like your thinking Newkid...

Originally posted by NewKid

in hindsight, i wonder if the following thinking could have been applied this morning.
since we gapped up this high today into unchartered territory, would it have been prudent to hold for the gap close or at least O/N midpoint once we saw that we were not making new highs?

just need to be patient and hold. would be worthwhile to go back and look for such occurences....