ES short term trading 6-30-10

In my opinion the market tipped its hand yesterday signalling lower ,possibly much lower, prices coming in the next few weeks/months.Try as i might i cant find any longer term projection, or for that matter, fib relationship of any kind that says 1030 could be the bottom of the decline which started in April!. Therefore, from a kools tools perpective, There are lower prices coming soon! so like everyone else, i expect an oversold market to muster a dead cat bounce of some sort ,but likely from slightly lower prices first. The closest numbers i can find are the original high of 1129.50 to its initial move low was 1103.25. this has a 4.236 termination ratio of around 1018.50 and if A was from 1211.25 to 1032.75 ans B was complete at 1129.50 then C=.618A AT 1019.25. Look folks, i know im really reaching here but,1030 is NOT 'THE BOTTOM'And i dont think 1018-19 is either (we'll see the 900 's at some point.) but this zone might be good for a dead cat bounce. right now i have short term projections around 1023.50-1024.75 which could do the same. Its also possible of course that the bounce has already started , we'll just have to see what develops today . Anything is possible today, but by all rights seasonally thurs and friday should have some upside pressure. The main point of this discourse is that much lower prices are ahead in the next month or so (950-960?) in my opinion. As always time will tell!... good luck gang!

just noticed the triples you mentioned.. yeah , i would say thats a decent target... Good luck all!

So if price stopped within the 39.00 and didn't run much further fromyour projection you would be more prone to hold for a longer target?

Thanks for the explanation and nice job getting 8 handles!

I'm hoping that was the last test of those double low range 15 minute bars at highs.....targeting that double low from before...don't like triples near highs or lows...

shelf - double low at 36.25

now what will tell us that we aren't permantly attatched to 38.75...? sure wish I knew....look at that low range 30 minute near highs


so far we are consolidating in th elower half of value area of yesterday

looks like we are in a descending triangle.breakof 38.25 can send a move down to 32.75

Bruce do you have the DAR for today realquick?

Hi guys,

I read your posts in these daily topics usually at the end of the day with great interest.

Just wanted to give you sincere thanks to the honesty and willingness in your posts for all to see.

Many good cheers!

Logic which always doesn't work is telling me that the POC from today is at 38 area which is lower that the 42.50 from yesterday....and we are consolidating lower so they are accepting the lower prices......

I'd be hard pressed to go long here....but that is logic....as we all know anything can and does happen in the market....if prices are such a bargain down here then why haven't they rallies it yet??


will see if my logic wins out..

don't have it for today due to Tuedays big range....3 dar , 5 atr . 10 atr's usually all are off after days like that.....


shelf run...have two left...trying for new lows and yesterdays low butthat is grand thinking...

Look how we matched that low range 2nd 5 minute bar from this morning...need to get under that othersise 38.75- 40 gonna be magnet again

"went short at 38 even. I had a bearish bias this afternoon and after the fake breakout to the upside it confimed me going short"