ES short term trading 6-30-10

In my opinion the market tipped its hand yesterday signalling lower ,possibly much lower, prices coming in the next few weeks/months.Try as i might i cant find any longer term projection, or for that matter, fib relationship of any kind that says 1030 could be the bottom of the decline which started in April!. Therefore, from a kools tools perpective, There are lower prices coming soon! so like everyone else, i expect an oversold market to muster a dead cat bounce of some sort ,but likely from slightly lower prices first. The closest numbers i can find are the original high of 1129.50 to its initial move low was 1103.25. this has a 4.236 termination ratio of around 1018.50 and if A was from 1211.25 to 1032.75 ans B was complete at 1129.50 then C=.618A AT 1019.25. Look folks, i know im really reaching here but,1030 is NOT 'THE BOTTOM'And i dont think 1018-19 is either (we'll see the 900 's at some point.) but this zone might be good for a dead cat bounce. right now i have short term projections around 1023.50-1024.75 which could do the same. Its also possible of course that the bounce has already started , we'll just have to see what develops today . Anything is possible today, but by all rights seasonally thurs and friday should have some upside pressure. The main point of this discourse is that much lower prices are ahead in the next month or so (950-960?) in my opinion. As always time will tell!... good luck gang!

THX for the compliment Bruce... i think others may read my posts but few, really pay attention to them... btw kudos to you my friend on calling for a down market this afternoon and being short for much of it.. i really felt like it could go either way before i went to sleep ,well done

LETS SEE: daily range according to daily notes page avg is 23 for 5 days and 21 for 10 days... todays high 1044.50- 21= do da maff!

Hour range is a biggie for me...I've looked at the 5 minute years ago but can't really say the one minute is better than the other...probably best to use the opening range as reported on the big contract which isn't based on A FIXED time!!!

Originally posted by Lorn

Many thanks. Have you experimented with different timed OR's, such as 5 minute, 10 minute, etc.?

Just curious because I use the first 5 minutes for my OR but also use the 1st hour's range as bigger reference points.

Originally posted by BruceM

flat 31.25...that's a rat!! anybody using them ???


opening range to me is 1st minute Lorn...and welcome here....same to u David...from your earlier post...welcome to the forum

GREAT KEEP EM COMING !!!

Originally posted by sjzeno

Here is the trade I was talking about and just exited.

Click image for original size

It even went down further than I projected. Hope you guys got this one

can someone please tell me what it says on the chart originally posted by sjzeno. I cannot read the comments

SJzeno, could you please use a different color font when you post.

"went short at 38 even. I had a bearish bias this afternoon and after the fake breakout to the upside it confimed me going short"