ES short term trading 6-28-10

I just created a Market Profile using the RTH sessions for ES from last week, Monday through Friday. So the 1 week Value Areas are:

VAH=1102.00
POC=1075.50
VAL=1063.50

This week's Economic Events.

Boy, that 1076.50-1077 is a tough nut to crack! 30 min ema is there as is the 30 prc median line, price projection, etc... may take a bit if they do it at all..

Yes Piker...first time I am wrong and early..that happens a lot...and it is difficult to average in but you need to have an "Uncle" point...I have mine and I HATE hitting it....some days the setups are better but in general we can fade the first move...a day like today is much harder because they didn't break any real key number outside a RTH or O/N range to suck in break out folks...

The "diddle in the middle" is a crappy place to trade from so this morning I was at smaller size in case I took the beating. I like having more contracts on as it gives you something to scale out with but putting them on still sometimes rattles me until I can get something off at a profit....double edge sword and I'm still trying to make that better...

Unless I add , I like to take someting off rather quickly..it feels good but isn't always the best method..

Originally posted by BruceM

Yes Piker...first time I am wrong and early..that happens a lot...and it is difficult to average in but you need to have an "Uncle" point...I have mine and I HATE hitting it....some days the setups are better but in general we can fade the first move...a day like today is much harder because they didn't break any real key number outside a RTH or O/N range to suck in break out folks...

The "diddle in the middle" is a crappy place to trade from so this morning I was at smaller size in case I took the beating. I like having more contracts on as it gives you something to scale out with but putting them on still sometimes rattles me until I can get something off at a profit....double edge sword and I'm still trying to make that better...

This morning why didn't you short the first move instead of fade it?

All in all, i think today has to be dissapointing for the bulls... no clear breakout and they had everthing going for them,seasonals ,end of the month window dressing, etc. gotta make you wonder... see every one tomorrow!!

The first move in RTH was down..so I was long.I mainly work off the Real time session... I took the small O/N session long to target the high volume price of 77.75 I believe but then the peak volume price changed quickly so I was forced to exit...


The peak volume price from the O/N session is tested a tremendous amount of the time....On Fed day the market in realtime stopped up atthe 95 area....that was peak volume from the O/N session if i recall correctly....anyway I'm usually buying when folks are selling but have new respect for the late day stuff now!! so I'm very cautious about fading then..

let me know if that is what you meant....not sure I understood the question

Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

Yes Piker...first time I am wrong and early..that happens a lot...and it is difficult to average in but you need to have an "Uncle" point...I have mine and I HATE hitting it....some days the setups are better but in general we can fade the first move...a day like today is much harder because they didn't break any real key number outside a RTH or O/N range to suck in break out folks...

The "diddle in the middle" is a crappy place to trade from so this morning I was at smaller size in case I took the beating. I like having more contracts on as it gives you something to scale out with but putting them on still sometimes rattles me until I can get something off at a profit....double edge sword and I'm still trying to make that better...

This morning why didn't you short the first move instead of fade it?

one last thing Piker..I was initiating longs below 72,50...that was a key number for me so besides the Air pockets I have something else to try and help pull UP the market.......this is why I type stuff here...it also helps me clarify someethings that come automatic over time.......still a work in progress/

Got it. Thanks for the explanation.

taking a two contract long at 69.25 in O/N.....target is 71.25 and then the gap at 75 is day session data....not babysitting this but have alert set if we print 66.25....

got filled on one at 71...ridiculous volume this O/N....either gonna stop me at 69 or will get that 75 gap now...!!

Yes, the front month unless there are only a few days to expiration. And I'm looking for immediacy in the move, up or down, of decent magnitude ... preferably within 1 to 2 (sometimes 3)days. And that's if I don't have a strong directional bias ... which I don't currently ... just a mild bias to the down side which comes primarily from how individual stocks have performed in the past couple of days and how their charts currently look "heavy" for lack of a better term.

Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

Just an observation guys. Yeah, there's the cycle of expansion and contraction of daily bar ranges (and the same on other time frames as well) ... but, look at the SPY chart and also the ES chart that includes all trading hours. The market is likely to have a decent magnitude move out of the current range ... my hope being that tonight's trading stays narrow and that Tuesday opens inside of this range bound activity. Then it's a matter of how ya play it ... directionally or tossing on straddle or strangle option contracts ... and even potentially legging out of them. Here's hoping for continued range constriction tonight and opening into tomorrow!!

Just curious MM,

Do you use front-month contracts when you put on straddles/strangles?