ES short term trading 6-28-10

I just created a Market Profile using the RTH sessions for ES from last week, Monday through Friday. So the 1 week Value Areas are:

VAH=1102.00
POC=1075.50
VAL=1063.50

This week's Economic Events.

why were u thinking short Phileo?

Originally posted by phileo

as soon as it dropped below 1076 after the open, there was no re-trace, so I was not able to get short 1076 (unless i caught it on the way up)

no TICK extreme thus far, this could bleed down a little more before we see some buyers step in.....

a trade near 67.75 willhave me thinking that I'm on the wrong side of the hour break out and will switchto short with these runners......otherwise we are good to go for Fridays highs and O/N high!!

more fun to watch paint dry today...

sure seems like it gonna be one of "those" days...stuck inside YD range and hour range......so obvious consolidation.....any trends will be short lived untill we reslove YD range

someboday needs to fiqure out if 72.50 is resistance or that low range 15 minute bar is support so we can get an hour high or low...so far the 15 minute is support for the high but wacth it's range

sure don't want to see 69 now before the high run

Originally posted by BruceM

why were u thinking short Phileo?

Originally posted by phileo

as soon as it dropped below 1076 after the open, there was no re-trace, so I was not able to get short 1076 (unless i caught it on the way up)

no TICK extreme thus far, this could bleed down a little more before we see some buyers step in.....

I categorize the Opening structure as follows:
a) opening drive - directional for 5 1min. bars or more
b) extend reverse - extension of preMkt bias, then reversal 3-6min. into the open. This is like a mini-breakout/breakdown failure but on a very fine
c) flat - range bars, no directional bias for 6 1min. bars or more

opening structure was following the preMkt bias (which was up but within congestion zone of O/N globex session), then stalled and reversed 1076.25. previous close 1074.5 was nearby, so the stall meant potential lower high + it wanted to fill the gap. This was similar how Firday opened, so it was still fresh in my mind.

Plus, 1076 was the O/N hi for the Thurs. evening session.

took two off at 76.50 and holding two.....the added benefit of adding to trades is having some ammo for longer targets......lots of downside too if you are wrong though...so we need good add points ...


key ideas.....

1) The hour high and low
2) the 15 minute consolidation
3) holding trade above 72.50...a key number!!
4) Tick trend

consolidation up here may try for the 72.75 retest...

1072 is the O/N lo and daily PP (1072.25). Price needs to stay above this level; a break below increases probability of retesting 1066.5 LoD.

Yes, the front month unless there are only a few days to expiration. And I'm looking for immediacy in the move, up or down, of decent magnitude ... preferably within 1 to 2 (sometimes 3)days. And that's if I don't have a strong directional bias ... which I don't currently ... just a mild bias to the down side which comes primarily from how individual stocks have performed in the past couple of days and how their charts currently look "heavy" for lack of a better term.

Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

Just an observation guys. Yeah, there's the cycle of expansion and contraction of daily bar ranges (and the same on other time frames as well) ... but, look at the SPY chart and also the ES chart that includes all trading hours. The market is likely to have a decent magnitude move out of the current range ... my hope being that tonight's trading stays narrow and that Tuesday opens inside of this range bound activity. Then it's a matter of how ya play it ... directionally or tossing on straddle or strangle option contracts ... and even potentially legging out of them. Here's hoping for continued range constriction tonight and opening into tomorrow!!

Just curious MM,

Do you use front-month contracts when you put on straddles/strangles?