ES Thursday 3-5-15

Bands for the day. Good luck to all.

Originally posted by NewKid

i have a greenie @3.5, which is also the O/N high. Maybe a good place for the market to pause?

I'm done for the day, but personally I would look at 06. Blowing out the O/N hi a bit and 5 points off the open.

Good luck whatever you select!

slow and steady...it takes time......I started with the ES in late 1998 and it took two years before I felt i was "Getting it" ....and that was two long years of them "Taking it" ( my money) from me.....best to just trade a few times and call it a day...if you get two winners then stop or trade real small........the only thing I would do now is try to sell 03 or 05 but i would need a reason for it to come back down.......like if I saw single prints created today...otherwise this may all be just noise ....and never give back more than 25 % of winnings on trades after a few good wins or 11 a.m.........it's not worth the risk

Originally posted by NewKid

I am impressed by Bruce's ability too. I literally am unable to do it because I feel stretched and stressed. So hats off to Bruce.

Also I am learning that I really have no desire to make a killing at trading. Make no mistake, I will take the big bucks if they come, but getting 4/5 points a day are sufficient to make me a millionaire and if I can average that, I will be more than happy. If I make a fraction of it and end up making ~100k, I will still be golden. That is all I want. To match my previous salary.... ok fine, maybe double it :)

Originally posted by Big Mike

I am always amazed and impressed at Bruce's ability to post and trade nearly simultaneously. What I have found over time, and being in Chicago there are a LOT of traders here, that most of the guys killing it are actually trend traders, in a longer timeframe mostly. These guys are in the shadows and just do what they do. They don't have educational venues and typically don't post on forums. They don't even know most of these places.

Good luck to all.

I've have major back problems...so I'm not trying for pity....impressing upon anyone just how bad all this sitting can be........and as far as the typing and posting goes, I've had carpal tunnel twice......LOL.........For me I am very happy with dollars earned from ES but it still doesn't stop me from challenging myself and that is what my options journey is all about.........I also have a threshold of just how many contracts i want to have working on ES trades...we all have our limits- mentally

Looking only at my EURO line @ 99.25 It broke out then back and there were (14) 5M periods trading in and around that line. That made me feel the line was insignificant today.
That's great stuff bigmike...thanks for pointing that out...did not consider that at all...then came down to eu IB low + poc from yesterday and up up up.
Ah, to have trading mundane...working on it...congrats on reaching that!

Originally posted by Big Mike

Originally posted by pants

I had EU IB high of 99.25..VAH from yesterday at 98.5...half back O/N at 99
Got long 99.50 after it broke below VAH and back above...-1.75...
Lines are important until they are not? 3 things lining up is too many/not enough?
Maybe should have waited for gap to fill?
Tomorrow this trade will work and bad luck?
Help?

Looking only at my EURO line @ 99.25 It broke out then back and there were (14) 5M periods trading in and around that line. That made me feel the line was insignificant today.

Today my read was good. You had a trade that didn't work, we all do!

You need to have a belief in your setup, hopefully born out of careful diligent study. Once you build that belief and your setup has positive expectancy...that's it. Trading becomes rather mundane.

When did you get long? After the O/N half back was touched? Or before?

If before, then you should not have because there was a really high probability of it getting touched today (as per research by Bruce and another member on this forum)

I did not see a reason to get long at that area because we had the mid pt @ 99, which was very likely to get hit today. Then after that, we had a VPOC @ 96.5 and YD's POC at 96.75. Both these were within striking distance of 99, so that kept me out of longs then. Also YD's close was right at the POC as well, so they would try gunning for that too. As I mentioned earlier, I was looking to get long near 96.5 for that reason and not before that. The odds did not seem high for it to work at 99.

Why did the long not work at 99? I dont know and no one really knows for sure. It could have worked. Just that it had lower odds due to the reasons I wrote above. Try to not look at these levels in isolation. Look at the surrounding data to see if it supports it as well. I know it is hard and I am still learning it as well but that is what it boils down to.

Keep working at it. I have been at it for a while and am still learning new things as you can see from my other posts. This is a long journey. No one has become a doctor/lawyer/engineer in a short span and becoming a trader is no different. We all have to pay our tuition (in this case to the market) and take our time to get educated

Originally posted by pants

I had EU IB high of 99.25..VAH from yesterday at 98.5...half back O/N at 99
Got long 99.50 after it broke below VAH and back above...-1.75...
Lines are important until they are not? 3 things lining up is too many/not enough?
Maybe should have waited for gap to fill?
Tomorrow this trade will work and bad luck?
Help?

Thanks for sharing that Bruce. That does put things in perspective. Two years sounds about right and I have been at this full time for less than a year. I do have time put in before but now I am finding out, not all of that was productive.....I have learned what NOT to do over the years and that has definitely helped me... also the rules of thumb you mentioned are very good and do help things ease down. One of the things I have learned (from observation, personal experience and from other traders) is that overtrading is a real reason people fail at trading. There was a time when I did 26 trades in ES in 1 day! And I made like 1 point after everything was said and done! So yes, I have definitely learned to not overtrade and take only those opportunities that seem to be high probability plays and higher probability ones as time passes by...

Originally posted by BruceM

slow and steady...it takes time......I started with the ES in late 1998 and it took two years before I felt i was "Getting it" ....and that was two long years of them "Taking it" ( my money) from me.....best to just trade a few times and call it a day...if you get two winners then stop or trade real small........the only thing I would do now is try to sell 03 or 05 but i would need a reason for it to come back down.......like if I saw single prints created today...otherwise this may all be just noise ....and never give back more than 25 % of winnings on trades after a few good wins or 11 a.m.........it's not worth the risk

Originally posted by NewKid

Originally posted by NewKid

I am impressed by Bruce's ability too. I literally am unable to do it because I feel stretched and stressed. So hats off to Bruce.

Also I am learning that I really have no desire to make a killing at trading. Make no mistake, I will take the big bucks if they come, but getting 4/5 points a day are sufficient to make me a millionaire and if I can average that, I will be more than happy. If I make a fraction of it and end up making ~100k, I will still be golden. That is all I want. To match my previous salary.... ok fine, maybe double it :)

Originally posted by Big Mike

I am always amazed and impressed at Bruce's ability to post and trade nearly simultaneously. What I have found over time, and being in Chicago there are a LOT of traders here, that most of the guys killing it are actually trend traders, in a longer timeframe mostly. These guys are in the shadows and just do what they do. They don't have educational venues and typically don't post on forums. They don't even know most of these places.

Good luck to all.

I always admire lofty goals but IMO that goal of 4-5 points per day per contract is not going to happen anytime soon or ever. That isn't meant to discourage you, it is a dash of realism. You do not need to attain that level to be a successful trader.

if you can net 1 point per day as an average you are there my friend.

I would trade 1 contract for as long as it takes until that happens. Hopefully it happens before the account gets too low.

Scaling a successful ES trading system is the easy part.

Self test, how many months have you been net positive the equivalent of 1 point per contract. When you can string them together over a period of different market conditions (hi vol, summer doldrums Greece, oil etc.) you are a trader and THEN you can scale.

Good luck.

I always admire lofty goals but IMO that goal of 4-5 points per day per contract is not going to happen anytime soon or ever. That isn't meant to discourage you, it is a dash of realism. You do not need to attain that level to be a successful trader.

if you can net 1 point per day as an average you are there my friend.

I would trade 1 contract for as long as it takes until that happens. Hopefully it happens before the account gets too low.

Scaling a successful ES trading system is the easy part.

Self test, how many months have you been net positive the equivalent of 1 point per contract. When you can string them together over a period of different market conditions (hi vol, summer doldrums Greece, oil etc.) you are a trader and THEN you can scale.

Good luck.

Definitely agree on that Big Mike. Like I said, 4/5 points will make me a millionaire and that will be a bonus over time but for now, my goals are much smaller. I am trading just the 1 contract right now because again I agree with you that scaling is easy once everything else is put in place. I currently trade 1 contract and then paper trade what I would do if I had runners. And no, I am not averaging a profit of 1 point per day, but that is the goal... I know that once I get it, I will make back all the money I have lost relatively quickly, so that is not the most important thing right now. I have lost a large bundle of money trading bigger sizes and utterly stupid systems, so I have lost all my desire to do that again. The losses are relatively small right now (still hurt, but small in $ amount) and that is helping me work through things

Nice video Bruce. And spot on today. And I have horrible hip pain LOL 2 months ago doing squats. Im finding my 10hr sessions are not happening anymore.

I got in after it touched O/N mid...went down to 98 bounced back up and through...at that point I thought I was gold...enter on high of low bar...thinking it rejected, going down through VAH, half back and eu ib hi and back up..having the 3 made me blind to the poc below.
In hind site I shoulda kept that loss small (not 9%) like I did yesterday to be able to take 2 swings...but having the 3 of them so close to each other I gave it more rope. I probably would have taken the proper trade off the poc and eu ib low...boo hoo woulda shoulda coulda.
Looking forward to tomorrow.
Great analogy about the doctor/lawyer...my time at this, maybe I should have done that lol

Greats posts by everyone...so much solid info here.

Originally posted by NewKid

When did you get long? After the O/N half back was touched? Or before?

If before, then you should not have because there was a really high probability of it getting touched today (as per research by Bruce and another member on this forum)

I did not see a reason to get long at that area because we had the mid pt @ 99, which was very likely to get hit today. Then after that, we had a VPOC @ 96.5 and YD's POC at 96.75. Both these were within striking distance of 99, so that kept me out of longs then. Also YD's close was right at the POC as well, so they would try gunning for that too. As I mentioned earlier, I was looking to get long near 96.5 for that reason and not before that. The odds did not seem high for it to work at 99.

Why did the long not work at 99? I dont know and no one really knows for sure. It could have worked. Just that it had lower odds due to the reasons I wrote above. Try to not look at these levels in isolation. Look at the surrounding data to see if it supports it as well. I know it is hard and I am still learning it as well but that is what it boils down to.

Keep working at it. I have been at it for a while and am still learning new things as you can see from my other posts. This is a long journey. No one has become a doctor/lawyer/engineer in a short span and becoming a trader is no different. We all have to pay our tuition (in this case to the market) and take our time to get educated

Originally posted by pants

I had EU IB high of 99.25..VAH from yesterday at 98.5...half back O/N at 99
Got long 99.50 after it broke below VAH and back above...-1.75...
Lines are important until they are not? 3 things lining up is too many/not enough?
Maybe should have waited for gap to fill?
Tomorrow this trade will work and bad luck?
Help?

Joe, when you have a minute, can you explain again how you calculated those percentages and what does o.b mean (opening balance? 1-min, 5-min?)?
i know you said you used discretion on where the bar closes with respect its range but i did not quite understand the L1-80%, etc.. thanks

Originally posted by CharterJoe

I have done this for years by hand only real time this a.m. looked like this
9:30 LL
9:35 LL L1 -80%
9:40 LL L2-60%
9:45 LL L3 +100 o.b.
9:50 HH H1 +20%
9:55 ib inside bar
10:00 LL L1 strong close +90%