ES short term trading 4-1-11

Good morning! Set for a wild open, eh! I thought i'd briefly touch on the thought process i have going into a typical trading session. First, as you may know i have a longer term bullish bias, thinking that 1241 was a supreme buying opportunity to an expected move up to 1426 at a minimum, probably by June. I am much more cautious shorter term however,feeling that a short term top may be overdue. So that the set up! Now for today! Yesterday i pointed out 2 days with a very tiny daily range in the es, would likely yield a big range (strong move) day very soon. The fact that today is unemployment day made that a no-brainer. lol. Anyway, being jobs day, remember ive shown in the past that , historically, its best to 'fade' the opening move! That means if we open down, you would want to buy! Conversely ,if we have a strong move up opening, that would be bearish!... i know thats hard to believe ,but thats just history! It certainly appears so far that the bearish scenerio,may be taking hold... in other words i'll likely be looking for shorts! And heres what im looking at as we come to the opening of the rth session...

Originally posted by BruceM

The volume spike after it was higher Kool so I give that more weight.....and also the opening range is right there...

ohhh, ok ,thx pal! appreciate it.. since my 0ne min prc is starting to turn up,, ive probably missed my buy.. but i'll leave it in a bit longer ,just in case...still think tey have their eye on 1137

here is a good visual of what happens quite often AFTER the High volume node gets created during the day....


They try to break it away from there and when they fail we mean revert....You can see this on my chart above the HV node of 1331.75 and below it....both times volume dries up and they go back to test it

I'm hoping this brings home the concept... not specifically how or where I took the short trade....and just for the record, I didn't take the long trade for the retest back up from below...as mentioned , I am a bad buyer...


But if you bring in the volume divergence, the Vwap Lisa showed and the opening range then that would have been a good place to try for longs ...just pointing that out

you can also see the volume divergence right after the big volume spike bars that happened earlier...I had the 32 short that I posted but I could only get down to 30.75 ...the OR high.... and then my runners got stopped out

Originally posted by koolblue

well the red avg 0n the 5 and 13 min is around 1331.25-50 and the median line on the 5 min is at 1332.00 so if we dont break those ,thereds still hope!.. i hope!

judgment time!

5 min triples down at that 1330.25 .. hope the boyz notice them!

triples also up at 1333......I'm done.....could go either way now...good luck Kool

here is traders lab link for those who asked...

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/trading-market-statistics-links-4803.html

how funny is that...back to our old volume friend...1324.50.....it's like they want to torture us some days.....

i'm at the office so i can't post a chart but if you look at early to mid Feb the market did the same thing when they hit the 1330 levels. There seems to be a brick wall at the 1333-1335 levels. Maybe someone could look into this and confirm?
My guess is there is balance between sellers and buyers at these levels and with no significant news or reports we will stay stagnate until that changes with earnings reports or other news.
with recent flar ups of trouble in jordan and the middle east,our own senate not able to agree on a budget, i would suspect the market is approaching higher levels a little cautiously to see what happnes over the weekend.