ES short term trading 4-1-11

Good morning! Set for a wild open, eh! I thought i'd briefly touch on the thought process i have going into a typical trading session. First, as you may know i have a longer term bullish bias, thinking that 1241 was a supreme buying opportunity to an expected move up to 1426 at a minimum, probably by June. I am much more cautious shorter term however,feeling that a short term top may be overdue. So that the set up! Now for today! Yesterday i pointed out 2 days with a very tiny daily range in the es, would likely yield a big range (strong move) day very soon. The fact that today is unemployment day made that a no-brainer. lol. Anyway, being jobs day, remember ive shown in the past that , historically, its best to 'fade' the opening move! That means if we open down, you would want to buy! Conversely ,if we have a strong move up opening, that would be bearish!... i know thats hard to believe ,but thats just history! It certainly appears so far that the bearish scenerio,may be taking hold... in other words i'll likely be looking for shorts! And heres what im looking at as we come to the opening of the rth session...

Short 31.25

i'm showing they are going to push it to 32.25.. will wait for that number until i try any fades

added at 31.50...key number for me.....but higher risk....got the opening range in the way....big volume just printed...

we need to get moving here........alll those folks bought into the breakout range from yesterdays highs....they were smart....I want to get this back to 30 and then get below OR range....otherwise we may push up to 36 and I want no part of that fade

out with +.50 and +1

I know it's important to post trades in real time, but at 63 my reflexes are not what they used to be. Will try and do better for credibility.

My rational for shorting that was based on the 10 pt rule. Market will more often than not pullback after 10pt move. O/N low as 1321 so thought it was good for a scalp. If not I would have added at the Pivot point.

they are digesting the Overnight high....I don't like it....hour range closing in....

my 32.25 was hit right on the nose and i am holding for 30.75 and a runner for 28.50 dangerous though, there is a lot of volume to the upside

went flat at 31 even...

I actually think that the trade needs to come first......so after the trade explainations are just as educational...and a lot less stressful for the poster....thanks for explaining

Originally posted by TravelinTrader

I know it's important to post trades in real time, but at 63 my reflexes are not what they used to be. Will try and do better for credibility.

My rational for shorting that was based on the 10 pt rule. Market will more often than not pullback after 10pt move. O/N low as 1321 so thought it was good for a scalp. If not I would have added at the Pivot point.

i'm at the office so i can't post a chart but if you look at early to mid Feb the market did the same thing when they hit the 1330 levels. There seems to be a brick wall at the 1333-1335 levels. Maybe someone could look into this and confirm?
My guess is there is balance between sellers and buyers at these levels and with no significant news or reports we will stay stagnate until that changes with earnings reports or other news.
with recent flar ups of trouble in jordan and the middle east,our own senate not able to agree on a budget, i would suspect the market is approaching higher levels a little cautiously to see what happnes over the weekend.