ES Short Term Trading for 3-28-11

Figgered I'd post my ES trading MAP for Monday and this week. It's the June ES contract 30min chart of 20 days, all hours trading, with RTH sessions of blue background and gray being the "overnight" activity.

Red lines are potential significant PASR levels with Magenta being semi-significant. The Whitish dashed lines are the Weekly Pivots. The Red lines that are roughly 1319-1321 should be considered a ZONE. The Yellow lines also should be considered a potential zone of Fib Clusters around the 1331-1332ish area.

I've left the Green Andrew's Pitchfork that I drew in last week ... as price, after it broke below the lower line, has ridden up against it to some extent. The Volume at Price is displayed on the right vertical in Blue. Hope this is helpful to some as a MAP!

but what specifically are you showing us Lisa..? I'm not trying to be rude....just confused...we had big volume at the ask on other bars at these lows earlier that didn't lead to a selloff...so what made this one different in terms of looking at the Delta


I'm expecting a retest of 05.75...that is where the buyers tried to buy that 06 area.....and a huge volume spike....we'll see...1301 is a key price below if wrong...

trying small buys at 03.25 area.....very small...

wow...I never did that before...was so focused on the delta that I lost track of time....I didn't even realize what time of day it was....anyway,,,I took the loss at 1302.50......amazing...Normally I would never have tried a fade at that time....but here is my chart that was looking at the buying node that came in at 1305.75...anyway

look at that bright green just under the VA low....Gold coloring on the side bar...it will be interesting to see if/when they test that.

BruceM, below are captions of the volume in moves at around 10:30 and 11:03 (column headings). I am in and out today, but review of the today's volume numbers showed me that that most of the day we had low volume moves, like the one at 10:30. 11:03 was the highest volume move of the day, prior to the big breakdown at 15:40.
My previous post for the 15:40 move shows a higher magnitude of volume. As I watched it developing, I could see the bears coming "en mass". Even if a trader does not have a significant price or pattern at that breakdown point,seeing that the bears are coming in volume can help to "hop on this train", even if a trader missed the beginning of the move.
I have to leave now, otherwise we could discuss further.

Bruce,

You may be misinterpreting what the delta bid/ask is saying.

It does seem counter intuitive but volume at the ASK on a delta chart represents BUYING! Volume at the BID on a delta chart represents SELLING!

Perhaps that is what you were actually saying?

Originally posted by BruceM

we had big volume at the ask on other bars at these lows earlier that didn't lead to a selloff...

correct Lorn...just typed it wrong..I got it but thanks for making sure I understood

That just so happens to be right above Fridays RTH low....who says traders don't pay attention to those levels?

Originally posted by BruceM



look at that bright green just under the VA low....Gold coloring on the side bar...it will be interesting to see if/when they test that.

Cool.

Something to pay attention to is very often delta EXPANDS in the direction of a price move WHEN the move is coming to an end then finally it CONTRACTS.

I believe this to be capitulation...

Originally posted by BruceM

correct Lorn...just typed it wrong..I got it but thanks for making sure I understood

The way PT uses the delta and bid/ask data is very good btw...take a look at his videos if you haven't here:

http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/6499/1/order-entry-preferences#74917

BruceM, re your post about BIG volume at time 16:04 on your chart
Posted-03/28/2011 : 16:22:56 wow...I never did that before...was so focused on the delta that I lost track of time....I didn't even realize what time of day it was....anyway,,,I took the loss at 1302.50......amazing...Normally I would never have tried a fade at that time....but here is my chart that was looking at the buying node that came in at 1305.75...anyway

look at that bright green just under the VA low....Gold coloring on the side bar...it will be interesting to see if/when they test that.

That buying node at price 1305.75 was at market closing. Big guys close positions at the end of the day, often 2 min before 4 PM, and you see very big prints - every day.

yes...you are correct Lisa..that's how messed up I was today......everyday you will see this volume near the cash close....and while I always know where the 4 pm and 4:15 close is I never pay attention to the actual volume that is created by that close.....


Humbling and almost embarrassing for me to post that post as I did but it shows how out of sorts I am with adding in this new delta visual....I always want to keep these threads as real as possible and would love to go back and delete those posts but I would never do that....

So the point is that even after my 12.5 years at the emini that nobody is immune from making rank amateur mistakes and getting messed up....so hopefully this will be a lesson to not only me but anyone who follows along......

I hope I haven't steered anyone in the wrong direction with that post......let me be clear for anyone who follows the volume concepts........ I donot find a specific edge to the volume that is created near the 4 pm close.......but you should always keep track of the 4 pm and 4:15 close anyway....for different reasons..

Originally posted by Lisa P

BruceM, re your post about BIG volume at time 16:04 on your chart
Posted-03/28/2011 : 16:22:56 wow...I never did that before...was so focused on the delta that I lost track of time....I didn't even realize what time of day it was....anyway,,,I took the loss at 1302.50......amazing...Normally I would never have tried a fade at that time....but here is my chart that was looking at the buying node that came in at 1305.75...anyway

look at that bright green just under the VA low....Gold coloring on the side bar...it will be interesting to see if/when they test that.

That buying node at price 1305.75 was at market closing. Big guys close positions at the end of the day, often 2 min before 4 PM, and you see very big prints - every day.

I agree Lorn..a potentially very powerful combination

Originally posted by Lorn

There is a certain aspect of delta in showing what the chasers are doing...imo.

That's why I prefer to look at delta on a cumulative basis in bar form so that I can see where the previous levels (pivots) came in relation to price. I use those levels (pivots) of CD as a way of marking where traders initiated there buying or selling. So it becomes a further area of support/resistance to use along with price action support/resistance.

Now combining that with your way of looking at volume Bruce I think is another step forward. The 1 min nodes of volume you follow, if they come in relation to a CD level of initiated buying/selling could give added weight to that levels effective support/resistance.

Ok. My brain hurts now.

Originally posted by BruceM

Yes, thanks Lorn...I guess I'm always looking to see things as they happen, or that repetitive pattern over time...

so right now I see all these orders that went off at the bid at 1310 - 1310.25...it's the peak volume price of the day now.....even overtook that 12.50 but this is based on repeated visits that price....

so if price rallies...the MD people would say "Hey , all those sell orders couldn't break down price so we rallied"

and if we decline they will say .." wow, look at all those sell orders...of course we dropped lower"

my statements are not directed at anyone in our forum...I'm just searching for ways to use this MD thing that is somewhat consistent ....if it even has any value...tons of youtube videos but that also is after the fact.....

I do like it for seeing the buildup of volume but I can see that on my Volume MP charts...the histogram shows that..

just babbling now...