ES Short term 12/07/10

I'm looking for 1231.00 as the objective and possibly higher.


So far, tonight, the ES moved down to 1219.00. The MdP is at 1219.25, ES found support and bounced back.

ES now trading at 1223.25

I think that it will need to open gap up and above the 1226.00 resistance. 1226/1227 is a strong resistance, add R1 at 1227.00 and we have a nice SR to play from.

Moving below 1216.00 will void the above.

Will see, and as always; the market has the last word and in due time will show me the way.

Thanks for the charts and comments guys! 1227.00 is 50% of today's range (1219.00-1235.00) 1227 is R1 and 1226.75 was yesterday's high, and 1228 is a reverse 2.618% Ext. Good area to capture profits from this am short.

Originally posted by BruceM

28.25 is final....out of ammo...otherwise I'd try to hold a bit more...we may still get complete gap fill if they resolve 25 - 27 area

Lorn...I'm not seeing how you got the LVN..? I assume it was from a longer composite structure......I do see the develpoing HVN there though from todays trade.....perhaps you could clarify where that came from

note for Paul:

We know that the 1.62 extension of Monday leads to a full 2.0 extension quite often....so the question is..?

How often does a break of mondays RTH high or low lead to either the 1.62 on the updside if high is broken first or 1.62 on the downside if the low is broken first...

Just thinking out loud and obviously any one can answer this if they choose..

30.50 is top dog for me now as it was where the volume spike came from in the O/N session and now it is second highest one minute volume spike in RTH trading....I'd like to see them reject that on downside now

Volume building in lower half of 60 minute range...are they really trying to accept price lower or is this the fake out?

Trading range now 1232-1227. Some zig-zags here till after lunch. Then I'm looking for 1237.00 as the objective.
The objective will be void if below 1225.00.

ES now trading at 1229.50 -- 11:23

Thinking of things logically is sometimes a mistake but if they ran it up and through there ( the 30.50) in the O/N session and now in the day session they are only accepting it from a drop down to that from above then this could sell off.....

you would expect buyers to step in like they did in O/N if it was such a great place to trade......

The day session isn't seeing it like that...so far

hmmm, well 1231.75 is currently being marked by my software as a LVN..or more accurately a low volume valley. It is also coming from todays developing trade...the software can be set for different sensitivities for determining how many prices to mark as HVN and LVN.

Not sure if that clears it up for you.

Originally posted by BruceM

Lorn...I'm not seeing how you got the LVN..? I assume it was from a longer composite structure......I do see the develpoing HVN there though from todays trade.....perhaps you could clarify where that came from

let me rephrase all of that:

If we get a volume spike that rallies the market and the next time we enter that spike area from above does not attract buyers and the market just jerks back and forth ( consolidates) then perhaps those buyers aren't there anymore and the market will sell off from there

is the software marking lines from the Overnight session? That might not be shown on your RTH charts...

Originally posted by Lorn

hmmm, well 1231.75 is currently being marked by my software as a LVN..or more accurately a low volume valley. It is also coming from todays developing trade...the software can be set for different sensitivities for determining how many prices to mark as HVN and LVN.

Not sure if that clears it up for you.

Originally posted by BruceM

Lorn...I'm not seeing how you got the LVN..? I assume it was from a longer composite structure......I do see the develpoing HVN there though from todays trade.....perhaps you could clarify where that came from

I see it Lorn....MY bad!!! sorry

Sorry Lorn, I left for the day so missed all this but here is a chart and some thoughts of what I think I would have done. Without actually trading it , it's hard to actually say what I would have been thinking in the line of fire of daytrading but I think this is it.

In general I donot like to trade for triples near the lows or highs of the day but yesterday I think I would have taken a shot at those on the lows as long as we didn't get too far above that 30.50 number I was watching. It would have made sense given the context of opening at the highs and then testing that open print with that Green up bar on my chart and then we rolled over down. We also broke the hour low and we gapped higher. So with that context I would have taken a shot at the short and would have lost when we got above 30.50 and consolidated up there.


The better trade was obviously going for those second set of triples that formed inside the hour range later in the day at about 2:15 as long as we didn't trade back above the open print. Runners would have probably gotten the new lows too....and broke the triples you mentioned......but if ya aint here to trade then this is all speculation of what I think I would have done... hope that helps as that would have been my thought process..

Originally posted by Lorn

Interesting we have trips right on 1226.75 which I show as a HVN from the O/N session.

Whats your take on that Bruce?