Emini S&P Trading Using Elliott Wave Principle

Hi all.

I am new to the forum and have started this thread to discuss trading the E-mini using the Elliott Wave Principle. I desire a high quality discussion.

I have attached the daily chart containing my operative count as a starting point of the discussion. I believe that the decline from 1216.5 was a Leading Diagonal rather than a 5 wave decline. We are currrently working minor wave 2 up in a zig-zag.

I'm looking forward to everyone's comments.

A leading diagonal is an interesting idea and certainly plausible. The idea has crossed my mind before, however a leading diagonal is such a rare structure that we must give an edge to the probability that the structure is something else entirely.

From the idea of head faking the bulls who see a three wave double zig-zag in progress I'm certainly keeping this leading diagonal idea on the table.

Thanks for sharing your idea.

LORN - Thanks for the input. I had originally labeled the structure as a 5 wave decline but didn't like the depth of wave 4 and thrusting price action. Strike one. Then we entered the corrective phase from 1038.5 - 1127.5 (Wave 2). Now the most recent price action already looks to be hunting 1127.5. Strike two. If we break there, we're still left with a minor wave 2 interpretation. Possibly an expanded flat. Bears need to take control before they strike out.

Here's the chart showing the original decline as 5 down. The ALT count is labeled below the chart.

Best of Trading

EWT;

Glad your here, I have the pleasure of listening to
David Elliott in his TOS room every night @ 8pm ET

I'll have to be devils advocate on this thread because I have never seen anyone post or trade EW that made money and posted their entries over time.....It's always an If, then else scenario....so I want to know where an EW trader would be short or long from and where they would reverse and or target...


I'm not personally interested in alternate wave counts or mislabels etc...

Lets start with the close of today....where would the long term trader be....IF THEY JUST STARED TRADING AT TODAYS CLOSE..Todays close is 1111.25 so would they be:

Flat
Long
Short

For any answer we need a Target and a stop or stop and reverse

I don't care if you actually took the trade or not...

All these long term things look great after the areas trade but actually making the longer term call I think is difficult as it happens. I have the same problem with my MP work on longer term ( so I'm not really picking on EW)so I'd like to see if EW can do any better

this post may seem agressive but it's really not meant to be...I just want to see someone TRADE it.....I'm still waiting for someone to show me how to TRADE longer term market profiles too and haven't found anyone who can and I can't fiqure it out myself. So let me apologize in advance if my wording ruffles some feathers.

Good luck with the thread Mike.

and as an FYI I voted this thread up too...lots of interest in EW...let see if we can get at least 10 votes...c'mon out of the shadows folks...at least to vote

Hey Bruce,

Appreciate the honesty and I can understand your frustration and I certainly can understand what you are saying in regards to long term calls. However, I think its important for a trader to embrace some kind of long term perspective on the market in terms of structure and in my book that's either EW or MP.

I wish I could step up and shout to the world here is what EW has done for me in actual trades, but I can't. It's more esoteric. A way to give me a sense of purpose almost. Something that can raise me, even if only momentarily, above the quantity oriented world we live in and focus on something based on quality.

I'm laughing at myself as I know that really doesn't make sense, but in a way it does too.

You must remember most of us are just small peanuts. Being able to stand the risks of trading from a long term perspective requires either massive funds or a life so at peace losing everything isn't a worry.

Just some initial thoughts in response to your posts.

I'd like to continue the discussion though.

Having some context and a longer term reference really helps. I'm not saying that EW is useless, I'm just not sure it will work for the longer term trader. Hopefully Mike will come back with the parameters for the current trade. Suppose I was a one contract longer term trader and acted at today's close. I'm assuming I would be long with a target of the 1127 area based on his comments. Where would the stop be? That's all....lets follow it over time and see if it helps us on paper...so many books on it , I assume it must work on all time frames.....

Are you asking if you had to place a trade at today's close what would the target and stop be?

Good idea Bruce. You asked " Lets start with the close of today....where would the long term trader be....IF THEY JUST STARED TRADING AT TODAYS CLOSE..Todays close is 1111.25 so would they be:

Flat
Long
Short

For any answer we need a Target and a stop
===================================================================
One simple rule for all readers. If you don't recognize the pattern in 5 seconds, stand down.

The market is in what I believe is a 4th wave consolidation of wave 2. According to EWT, the pattern would resolve to the upside. I would be flat because it is unclear whether the pattern is buliding a triangle or something else that has a greater downside potential below 1006. We need more price data before we act.

What I can offer is a rough target of 1127.5 - 1139 that have been in place since the break of 1096. When wave 4 is completed, I can add in additional targets.

As for a reverse, the wave count (alternative counts) would need to be applied and on most occassions do not immediately offer a trade as is in day trading. I realize that readers may not have an interest in an alternate count but it is part of the method. It's purpose is to provide an alternate view of the market should one's analysis be incorrect.

For those who would like more detailed analysis, drop me an e-mail and ask me about my bog.

Best of Trading!

Lorn

Great point on the difficulty being a long term trader and account size. I certainly don't have the deep pockets to sustain that kind of trading. We can't defend our positions, nor can we move the markets therefore most of my trades are not days, weeks, months. They are what I call extended day trades but not scalping.

Best of Trading!

Mike

Well, I guess we have our answer...as expected EWT is giving us double talk and "dancing" around making those market calls...we know what that means.....he can't make money by trading EWT.

I have a good indication now that he has little respect for our forum and the people here. He doesn't need us and we certainly don't need him. I think it's time to let Elite trader and other forums figure him out.