ES Short Term Trading 7-16-10

A Monkey’s Ramblings on a map to somewhere

*Red Lines are Price Action Support/Resistance lines
*Cyan Dashed Lines are Weekly Pivot lines
*Fib Retracement of 786 is shown with Green line(s)
*Yellow(ish) lines are a Pattern showing both a small ascending triangle BUT more importantly, some range contraction of sideways trading for a few days
*Volume bars are displayed as lighter Blue across the horizontal axis (overlapping some of the other components of the chart)



So, that’s the layout.

Yeppers, it’s option expiry Friday, which always can toss a monkey wrench into “normal” expectations.

1080-1100 seems to be a current significant range boundary. What’s more important to my view is, after a decent magnitude run up during the past week and a half or so, the market’s challenged and still challenging the 1100 price with daily bars of market contraction. This 1100 zone/level coincides not only with a PASR level I’ve got, but also with a 786 Fib retracement for those that follow fibs, and this Weekly R1 @ 1097. Daily R1 is 1101 for Friday fwiw.

After reviewing a bunch of individual stock charts, most of them are over extended to the long side or have a messy bullish pattern setup at best. Three that I ran across that looked only semi-decent were: AZO, NFLX and BIDU. The Russell-2000 was weaker than the other major indices for what it’s worth. As for volume, the rally’s been anemic as every dog and his brother has been intimating on their website and blogs. Don’t forget that we’re entering the Summer slow down though.

ES price is trading between the 50 and 200 sma and slightly above a down trend line (none of which are on the chart … it’s got more than enough lines and pretty colors to confuse me). So those “indicators” are mixed and messy.

Anyway, look to Bruce and Kool and others for intraday MP mapping etc. And hope this is helpful to some extent. Depending upon the overnight trading and the open, I'm looking at a potential straddle or strangle on the SPY.

Originally posted by BruceM

hey Paul...that would be range air but not price overlap air as I define it....That 61 - 62 is a biggie but more important should be when we tradeback to 1039 - 1041.....that is thee key breakout for this upleg...

Hey BruceM or DayTrader,

The chart below was posted by DayTrader about a week ago, showing all the single prints that got left behind during the run up. According to the rules of MP, those are still valid correct? Long-term those get filled if I understand MP correctly.


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Hey koolblue,
I liked your methods but not quite sure how you select tops for counting. Example you posted earlier seemed to be from a half cycle to me. I'll watch and learn. Just wanted to tell you I appreciate your work. :)

Me and Johnnie Walker are sitting back with a tall one now! Gotta drink lots of water in this heat !!


No trades for me..the only thing unresolved for me are those triples up at 72.25 and I see no way to get those down here...I may be crazy but usually not too stupid....Oh yeah, I was long and wrong for a campaign this morning..so that was stupid ....in hindsight...signs are usually there but I just can't see them as the day unfolds until it's too late...that $tick surge did help me take a much smaller loss so there is hope for me yet on trend days.. I always assume we aren't trending!!

61 is coming !!!!

Piker...it is usually the first set of singles that form on a day that are most important as that is the smart money getting on for the INITIAL move.....

singles that form after that get filled in fairly soon and are not as important as the first set.....now you know why I have 39 - 41 on my radar when we finally get back there.....!!

sorry Piker the 31 - 33 is important from that day....because of the singles but that 39 - 41 was a breakout on volume...that took out the 6-30-10 consolidation and that high on the 7-6-10 ..the breakout came on the 7th....

From an MP purist view it is usually the first set that froms that are most important..

here is the breakout point I was refering too..

Now that sounds like a real plan!

Originally posted by BruceM

Me and Johnnie Walker are sitting back with a tall one now! Gotta drink lots of water in this heat !!

Good for you, Bruce. Relax and enjoy. and make sure you drink water, I drink 8 ounces of water for every 3 glugs of Jack I pour into my rocks glass.


kool, my comment about trying to pick bottoms was really just one of my own rules... for me.

I wasn't in anyway criticizing your scalps. I understand that you have a modus operandi for your trading, you use it and it works.

where can I find out more about how you count between Hs to project a Bar that can be a low. I remember reading something about it somewhere, but charts had black background and I couldn't read any of the commentary on the chart.

Using Kool's projection method we have multiple 4.326 projections in the 1061 to 1062.00 area.

I sip my drink in your honor sir as I think you did the right thing...why trade and be uspset for the 20 % or less of the time we trend unless that is your plan. To make your money only when we trend would require you to be wrong over 80% of the time.....perhaps that is you nature but I still think you did the right thing

Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by BruceM

great work Phileo....and might I be so bold to add that they broke the O/N low and never returned....

Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by phileo

unless price can get above YDay's Lows, I'm going to call this a trend day down now.

NQ new lows
No long setups for me.

reasons:
1) no gap fill. normally 4pt gap down should not be a problem.
2) preMkt bias was down, and opening 5min. was an opening drive down.
3) price is running away from a declining VWAP.
4) 2pt shallow retraces so far.
5) broken below expected support levels, YDay's low being the most significant one.

Not so great for me, i exited way too soon at 1074.5 !!!
I am so filled with regret for being scared out by that retracement. I even said 1076 was the level to watch, but didn't listen to my own advice.
Frustrated too. This was supposed to be THE trade of the day.

It so easy to trade when you really aren't ..LOL...I think Paltalk is full of those types...

And it's even easier to take losses...

Yes I'm relaxing now but hope any of you that are in this on a summer friday Rock the house and make a lot of Doe...!!

So for you folks that watch the bonds...is there any real correlation between how the bonds close and the closing direction of the S&P..?

I'm using continuous day trading volume not just RTH volume....fyi.