ES Short Term Trading 7-16-10

A Monkey’s Ramblings on a map to somewhere

*Red Lines are Price Action Support/Resistance lines
*Cyan Dashed Lines are Weekly Pivot lines
*Fib Retracement of 786 is shown with Green line(s)
*Yellow(ish) lines are a Pattern showing both a small ascending triangle BUT more importantly, some range contraction of sideways trading for a few days
*Volume bars are displayed as lighter Blue across the horizontal axis (overlapping some of the other components of the chart)



So, that’s the layout.

Yeppers, it’s option expiry Friday, which always can toss a monkey wrench into “normal” expectations.

1080-1100 seems to be a current significant range boundary. What’s more important to my view is, after a decent magnitude run up during the past week and a half or so, the market’s challenged and still challenging the 1100 price with daily bars of market contraction. This 1100 zone/level coincides not only with a PASR level I’ve got, but also with a 786 Fib retracement for those that follow fibs, and this Weekly R1 @ 1097. Daily R1 is 1101 for Friday fwiw.

After reviewing a bunch of individual stock charts, most of them are over extended to the long side or have a messy bullish pattern setup at best. Three that I ran across that looked only semi-decent were: AZO, NFLX and BIDU. The Russell-2000 was weaker than the other major indices for what it’s worth. As for volume, the rally’s been anemic as every dog and his brother has been intimating on their website and blogs. Don’t forget that we’re entering the Summer slow down though.

ES price is trading between the 50 and 200 sma and slightly above a down trend line (none of which are on the chart … it’s got more than enough lines and pretty colors to confuse me). So those “indicators” are mixed and messy.

Anyway, look to Bruce and Kool and others for intraday MP mapping etc. And hope this is helpful to some extent. Depending upon the overnight trading and the open, I'm looking at a potential straddle or strangle on the SPY.

you're amazing, Bruce.


now, what's the 68.50 represent, HVN?

thanks paul..i took one more off at 69.50...and got stpped out at 70.50 on last

yes lots of numbers as hv showing up and 69 is mentioned on my mp thread

big $tick divergence down here...

Paul, I've been experimenting with hour bars and my Investor r/t snaps lines for them....the high volume prices...there is still one at 67.75 exactly from 7-12...so if they can resolve the divergence and of course the 74 holds then that is a great target

often times they will end up chopping around them if they don't immediately repel them...

triple at 72.25.....trickier on trend days....I'd like to see that 67.75 print first....other volume line way down at 61 - 61...so risk is not well defined for longs

SINCE THE RED 15 EMA O/N THE 5 MIN CHART IS AT 1069.68 AND THE 1.618 PROJ IS 1070.00 I'LL EXIT AT 1069.50... hopefully

Cmon boyz!..push it!...push it good!...push it real good!... LOL

great timing bar kool.

1066.50 was also the week's Low (I mentioned it earlier)

natural spot for a rebound, but price would have to get above 1077 (1077is roughly 50% of today's range and just above previous day's Low) to signify anything bullish (for me)

I'm using continuous day trading volume not just RTH volume....fyi.