ESshort term trading 4/7/10

reviewing the longer term bias... i have been looking for higher prices into mid to late april, so far ,so good. But we are now getting to a very 'dangerous area' as we approach 1200. we are ripe for a decent decline (at least 25 handles or more). the 15th is beginning to look like an important area time wise. however, given all this, the bullish trend has to be respected untill proven otherwise..... following are twoApril sesonality charts courtesy of Mike Burk. One covers years from 1963 to now and the other , a longer timerame. The main point here is the negative sesonality the 2nd half of the month.

I'm short from 1184. what i'm seeing:
1) Price keeeps stalling out at 1184.5 (this was yesterday's intraday lo)
2) +ve TICk cluster can't push price above 1184.75
3) unfilled gap 1186, naked VPOC 1185.5

I also happen to be looking for price to be below 1180 some time today.... when is the question....

I'm concerned that they are gonna shake out us shorts above the 85's...Ym is laggard as usual....$tick showing no buyers or sellers yet today....so we'll still consolidate....I'd like to see the 80 too Phil...


There goes the first minus 800 tick....lets see if this can attract selling for us

with a lot of luck they'll take it down to 76.50 for us....but this a diverging market..if we can print new lows then my stops are ging to 82.50.....that is slightly above a volume area that they may need to test...

the correct time to be greedy is when your position is profitable


Corrollary:
The absolute worst time to be fearful is when your position is profitable

There's going to be a bounce.
The question is, how far, and for how long?

believe me, I am more fearful than greedy right now !!!

1180 was the o/n and preMkt lo.

trapped longs at 1181.5 and 1182.

My stop is b/e, but I will monitor 1181.50-1182 if mkt shows strength at that area, I will be out.

I'm thinking that 76.50 will come as NQ has that double bottom that they will run out bring the ES down to 76.50 but first a back and fill up in ES...

79.50 is S1 and the overnight is matching up nicely recently...now lets go shake em out by running it 2 - 4 points below that number before that pop we expect

flat at 79...go get em phileo

Originally posted by koolblue

Click image for original size

Hi Koolblue.

I know it is a bit late but I wanted to thank you for posting the chart(s) on 04/07/10
One chart you posted with the 1171 as possible support was outstanding! Right on support too! A turning point.

Thanks again for sharing the way you see!

h