ESshort term trading 4/7/10

reviewing the longer term bias... i have been looking for higher prices into mid to late april, so far ,so good. But we are now getting to a very 'dangerous area' as we approach 1200. we are ripe for a decent decline (at least 25 handles or more). the 15th is beginning to look like an important area time wise. however, given all this, the bullish trend has to be respected untill proven otherwise..... following are twoApril sesonality charts courtesy of Mike Burk. One covers years from 1963 to now and the other , a longer timerame. The main point here is the negative sesonality the 2nd half of the month.

So to summarize ... outside of 1192.75 or 1172 area i dont have firm opinions yet. btw.. stopped out on a long attempt from 1181.75 at 1180.25 . now i'll be watching 1178.75-1179.00. perhaps others have a better handle on todays action.

I'm not sure I have any better grip Kool but I have 83.75 as a target if this 80 can hold in the overnight..below that is the 76.50 I've been looking at and the 72 so we are close you and I...

I'm also watching the Nq as I think they want to fill in up to 78.50...so that will help pull up the longs...but in general I look to consolidation to Lower trade today after a pop up a bit...

On the day session it shows thet want to jerk it around between 1185 and 1181 on the ES so any sells from me would come in at or above 85...

Yeah, Bruce my bias is slanted toward the down side today because of a Kools tools peak on the daily yesterday and those negative divergencies on the 2 hour chart but i have to buy, not sell with a rsi on the hourly chart below 30. Man if they could just take it down soon to that 78 and change level (es) that would be a great potential launch point, but it would have to happen early this morning or the pos divergencies on the hourly chart would dissappear.

I believe that the market is signaling a long side from 81.50 area I got it early and waiting for the bullist to take it to the 83.75 area.

Originally posted by koolblue

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Hi Koolblue.

I know it is a bit late but I wanted to thank you for posting the chart(s) on 04/07/10
One chart you posted with the 1171 as possible support was outstanding! Right on support too! A turning point.

Thanks again for sharing the way you see!

h