Mini I.B.

Set-up is VERY simple take the first 1/2 hour of RTH and if price trades above buy, and if it goes below sell short.

For mini Russell 2000 use targets of 2 points and a stop of 2 points.

For mini S&P500 use targets of 2.5 points and a stop of 2.5 points.

So far this March the ES has triggered 4 profits and 2 lossers or a gain of +$896.00 trading 4 contracts. It tends to perform better over a longer period. But the TF continues to outperform the ES month after month.
And trading 4 contracts in the past month would have yielded +$3150.00 on the ES

The TF on the other hand trading in the past month has yeilded +$6400.00 via trading 4 contracts

*these are actual results that counted my slippage but not comm.

My chart shows the same for 5/22. 2.5 loss.

quote:

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Originally posted by darkswan

quote:

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Originally posted by CharterJoe



The 30B high on 5/22 was broken at 10:25! @ 9:21 the setup was not even complete, the market wasn't even open so I assume you are on a different time zone. It almost stopped one tick and then went for a profit. If you like it trade it if not don't. The stop is not placed -2.5 upon entry but upon the market at the hi/lo. Gotta go 9:58

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Hi Joe

I'm very interested in this method because I've been trading a very similar one on ES for some months.It is nothing but a variation of the opening range breakout but there's a huge difference: the stop loss I use is bigger than the profit target, so a high percentage of winning trades is required to be profitable (around 75%). Up to now (5 months) I'm around zero and striving to be pofitable. Losses are vey hard to accept psicologically because the impact is much higher than wins.
I see that your system has more or less the same accuracy (from 72% to 78%) but the stop is the same as the profit. This means that the system should be very profitable because, commissions aside, only 51% accuracy would be enough to win!
I want to be sure that I properly understood the rules... let's go back to 22/5: first 30 min range is 890,75 - 882,00 according to my charts. As you say, you go long at 10:25 at 891 (assuming no slippage). If the stop is 2,5 pts. than it should be at 888,50 (or 888,25 if you consider 890,75-2,5). In any case price touched 888,25 5 min later so the selling conditions was triggered. That trade shgould have been a loss according to my data.
Can you make clear?

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Yes 5/22 was a loser...But It was a winner in my e-journal, thats what I was going by, there must have been something going on that day that kept me in the trade. I don't have it wrote down so I don't know what it was. I am human and still make mistakes like every one else please cut me some slack I don't know what you guys want...maybe you can enlighten me? And whats up with all the one post wonders?? Is this SPQR, if so get over it I never said one cross word to you?

Bottom line do your own research make your own choices. If you find this system is not profitable over the long term (like 6months) please enlighten me with a post of specific results and charts so I can show you what your doing wrong. If its just comments like it dosn't work or its not profitable then its your own lose and I don't have anything to say to you.

Most days I follow this closely as the rules I have laid out, other days today is one where instead of 2.5 points I made over 7 points. Other days I can filter losers by tape reading or get a better entry or get a better exit. I thought I was helping but if your all gonna bust my chops about 5/22/2009 then don't expect me to reply, It dosn't even change the bottom line $125....

quote:

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Originally posted by darkswan

quote:

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Originally posted by CharterJoe



The 30B high on 5/22 was broken at 10:25! @ 9:21 the setup was not even complete, the market wasn't even open so I assume you are on a different time zone. It almost stopped one tick and then went for a profit. If you like it trade it if not don't. The stop is not placed -2.5 upon entry but upon the market at the hi/lo. Gotta go 9:58

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Hi Joe

I'm very interested in this method because I've been trading a very similar one on ES for some months.It is nothing but a variation of the opening range breakout but there's a huge difference: the stop loss I use is bigger than the profit target, so a high percentage of winning trades is required to be profitable (around 75%). Up to now (5 months) I'm around zero and striving to be pofitable. Losses are vey hard to accept psicologically because the impact is much higher than wins.
I see that your system has more or less the same accuracy (from 72% to 78%) but the stop is the same as the profit. This means that the system should be very profitable because, commissions aside, only 51% accuracy would be enough to win!
I want to be sure that I properly understood the rules... let's go back to 22/5: first 30 min range is 890,75 - 882,00 according to my charts. As you say, you go long at 10:25 at 891 (assuming no slippage). If the stop is 2,5 pts. than it should be at 888,50 (or 888,25 if you consider 890,75-2,5). In any case price touched 888,25 5 min later so the selling conditions was triggered. That trade shgould have been a loss according to my data.
Can you make clear?

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Thats correct 5/22 was a loser, I explained in the previous post.

Where you going by the first hour breakout? If so I have a thread somewhere in the market profile about the I.B. labeled tetter totters
that filters a lot of I.B. losers.

Hey, This is a really nice forum and glad I found it and this thread. I have been trading a version of the 30b for a while. i like price action methods over indis. The 5 (or) 6b seems interesting to add to the arsenal. Has anyone tested or noticed if these may be more successful if trading in direction of gap or does it seem not to matter? I will have a look myself, just curious. cheers.

Hey Joe ,
It appears that Stifland is actually SPQR....can't confirm these other folks.....

Bruce

The main sense of my post was to emphasize that an accuracy of 72% to 78% for 30B method is really a great result if we consider that only 51% would be enough to be profitable with the upon set rules (SL = target profit). This and nothing but this is what I meant...
I investigated on 22/5 (and only on that day) just because I noticed another guy who had results not matching with your backtest so I wanted to be sure that I properly understood the rules.
I'm really disappointed and surprised that the reply (in bold) was: make your research and your choice.
I didn't mean to criticize anyone's job/effort/research.
I know we're only human and that's because of it, I hope, that we're here to share experiences and try to help each other...
I hope I made clear on my point of view.

Yes, I am supposed to be some kind of 4 letter person? What the heck is that Bruce? Is this a "special" forum or can't regular guys participate?

darkswan,

It was not to you. But you do need to do your own study on this because if you just take my word for it you may get shaken out of the first max down turn. But if you go thru the charts your self you will have the confidence you need.

I was talking to that hidango or what ever his name was not you. Sorry I wasn't clear.

Joe: I for one, love your posts and your attempt to help and share. Keep up the good work. Hopefully, we'll all become better, more profitable traders by these exchanges.
Don't let the occassional critic, or perfectly innocent question - not intended as criticism - get you down.

Best Regards.

(duplicate post in "Mini I.B. vs 7am-9am Breakout" thread)

I have been a member of mypivots for a little over a year now, using the posts as a springboard for learning about the futures and currency markets – I’ve really appreciated the research and insight of so many of the contributors.

I’m now at the point where I’d like to begin systematically back testing one or two strategies for potential trading. I like the concept of breakouts (just finished Fisher, currently reading Crabel) – this thread and Charter Joe's 7am-9am GBP/USD Breakout thread are especially interesting in this regard.

I’d appreciate some advice from the folks here. The IB and 7-9 threads are now over a year old: do both concepts still perform reasonably well in live trading? If so, which of these would you recommend that I begin my back testing with:

1. The 30B
2. The 5B
3. The 7-9 currency breakout

I have a full time job so I need a scheduled window of time to trade in. I plan to trade single lots, primarily intraday. I am methodical by nature and prefer smaller, steady gains to wild gains… and wild losses.

Any thoughts gratefully received! Thanks.

Isaac