ES 10-16-08

wow, a crazy globex session basically coming out flat. Volitility is very high, so entries and exits have to be quick! looking to buy near the open

The problem with options now is the incredibly high premiums, better to sell calls than buy puts.

pres,

Yeah I see what you are saying and that makes since, because I now move in 1/2 the size I did a while ago and will continue to do so until things cool off. I wish I could work my way up to 200-400, I would really like to help other people, any way I am rambling....did you try maybe 40? I think thats what CME classifies as large blocks in the ES.

kool,

monthly MP, and 30 min candle charts really help in the time frame I trade. But I look at a weekly and could make a call and it go 50-70 or more points against me in this market and thats just too much...maybe if I could get a couple longer terms under my belt??? I'll look into it this weekend.

have any of you options players look at the calls in the ultra short ETF, I did quite a bit last year but haven't even taken a look at them lately actually when Big Ben pulled his first surprise cut I quit. Just a thought to look at

Have a good eve

Benny - I just looked back at ES 80% rule performance since July 1. From my data we have had 24 80% rules trigger. Of those, 12 (50%) fulfilled during the same trading day. On top of that, 6 more fulfilled within 2 trading days which gets it up to 75%. Considering the volatility and range of the market recently and how often we have opened way out of MP "value" that is actually better than what I thought the "rule's" performance would be. I was taught that unfulfilled 80% rules are a lot like gaps in that they eventually fill. That may be like saying in the long run we are all dead so predicting one's demise or eventual 80% rule fulfillments are easy calls. Anyway I'd keep an eye on the 69-73 area tomorrow. It looks like GOOG, IBM and GILD may try to help the market up to that area.

quote:

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Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Benny - I just looked back at ES 80% rule performance since July 1. From my data we have had 24 80% rules trigger. Of those, 12 (50%) fulfilled during the same trading day. On top of that, 6 more fulfilled within 2 trading days which gets it up to 75%. Considering the volatility and range of the market recently and how often we have opened way out of MP "value" that is actually better than what I thought the "rule's" performance would be. I was taught that unfulfilled 80% rules are a lot like gaps in that they eventually fill. That may be like saying in the long run we are all dead so predicting one's demise or eventual 80% rule fulfillments are easy calls. Anyway I'd keep an eye on the 69-73 area tomorrow. It looks like GOOG, IBM and GILD may try to help the market up to that area.

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Sir I'm not negating nor confirming the 80% rule which is actually just a probability. It is just a misnamed being called a rule as far as I'm concerned as most who don't even know what it is should be aware that it is in fact only a better than slightly better then 50% chance of closing in value.
With all due respect if you are going to back test with stats to be provided please move it back a bit, 3 months is hardly a back test. Three years would possibly give you the results of 60ish %.
Lastly, we never did get 2 brackets to close in value. We were very close but from what I seen P bracket never opened/closed in value and closed below the weekly IB after it had broke above it which is not particularly bullish. Just my thoughts, and again I was just making comments on some facts and figures out there. Hope I didn't offend you.

The way I trade the 80% rule is jump in and ride it until the momentum dies, and thats 80% if not better% profitable I am sure....

a friend sent me this tonight so I thought I'd ask you folks:

"These are for the November options.
Do you have a clue what the catch is?

Sell 94.00 puts 94.00 SWGWP make +$9.48
Short the SPY at $94
Buy 94 calls 94.00 SWGKP pay -$4.73
Net profit $9.48- $4.73= $4.75
This looks like a risk free trade to me.

What's the catch?"

Thanks

Bruce