ES 10-16-08

wow, a crazy globex session basically coming out flat. Volitility is very high, so entries and exits have to be quick! looking to buy near the open

DOM doesn't really work any ways. I say sell (in my head) when it makes a decline and buy (in my head) when it advance one tick. Thats how I used to watch DOM after saying buy, buy , buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, sell, sell you knew that it was over short term. LOL thats impossible for a human now with the VIX almost at 80. But worked like a charm 2 months ago, I didn't do it all the time, just when entering or exiting.

These premiums are extreme! see ya tomorrow!

Do you always play the front month too Kool? With your options?

quote:

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Originally posted by CharterJoe

Prestwickdrive,

I would try making it larger than 50 and see what that does the volume has been much greater, so its a given that the smart money moves the size up to capitalize on these amazing moves.

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Joe - the challenge with the break point even at 50 is that when the market is really running these days we are only seeing 20-100 contracts on the bid and ask at several levels around the L1. If a big $ player puts in an order to buy or sell 300-1500 contracts which has been commmon in the past, instead of seeing a print of 300-1500 contracts trade it looks like it is being traded in multiple lots that are way smaller than it used to be when we routinely saw 1000-2000 contracts at each level around the L1. That's what I was referring to in that it "feels" like my BAV reported big $ activity is getting diluted. If I increase the break point, for example, to 100 contracts, I think it will hide the big $ activity even more until the market volatility lessens. Meanwhile, I'll happily keep the market volatility in lieu of an accurate BAV. LOL

Great trading again today!

The thing to watch is market deltas V. footprint. Its a great thing IMO, much better than DOM. It does what you cannot possible do i.e. count every tick of T&S.

at least there not tanking it after the close of the cash today

quote:

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Originally posted by koolblue

I hope PRESTS 80% RULE TAKES ITS TIME CAUSE I JUST BOUGHT A NOV PUT O/N THE ES AT 62.00

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that 80% rule is really not a 80% figure it's closer to the 60-65 % if it's the same one everyone quotes for mkt profile trades .I may be wrong but it sounds like the same one. Thanks again for all the posts and info everyone

well, yes cause im so short term, Bruce. For instance ill likely unload this tomorrow or fri. THAT way ican watch baseball tonite instead of sweating globex all nite

Bruce,

I know you asked kool, but If you don't mind....I would love to play DEC's and Jan's but I am just not that good at predicting long term stuff. Maybe if I kept a monthly chart???

weekly might do it, JOE .. monthly clearly shows the low in jan!

a friend sent me this tonight so I thought I'd ask you folks:

"These are for the November options.
Do you have a clue what the catch is?

Sell 94.00 puts 94.00 SWGWP make +$9.48
Short the SPY at $94
Buy 94 calls 94.00 SWGKP pay -$4.73
Net profit $9.48- $4.73= $4.75
This looks like a risk free trade to me.

What's the catch?"

Thanks

Bruce