ES 8-26-08

I'm not hopeful buyers are even capable of reaching 70.75 a fourth time only to be slammed into a new low, are you? I'm short wherever this cover-crawl peters out. 67.25 likely.

I still like 52 I measured last week. I'll do that, then. I'm certain I'll be contradicted, but isn't that what makes being right so fun. lol

Good morning, everyone!

Morning, i have late today or early tomorrow as a short term change in trend so your analysis seems quite plausible to me.Currently have my sell in at 1268.25, but may chase if it doesnt get there.One concern however , is the textbook 5 waves down completed at 1262.50 as seen on the 15 min. chart over the last 4 days.

I noticed that too, and concluded that this last consolidation has within it a fourth wave ABC. Bears seems more than capable of launching a first wave moreso than buyers imho, but you're right caution here would be best. I don't think the chop's over with really. Which if not would eradicate the ABC take. Either way it breaks for the duration we'll get a sizeable breakout to the upside it's looking like, false or no. That cover-crawl turned into something potentially potent.

I think I'll wait for 60 opening range. I want to catch a swing, but I've been pretty good not giving anything back the last few sessions, finally. I had a bad spell there for a bit, that took some doing to make back.

We'll see how it goes.

this looks like it could be wave 4 also,if wave 3 bottomed at 1262.50. not sure how far it carries tho(1273 to 1277?).Time will tell.PS: SOLD ONE AT 1277.50 since imissed my entry by one tick. 3 point stop. wave a of 4 ending?(i hope)

lowering stop to 1268.75.covering around 1265 area

out at 1266.00 plus 1.5 handles, watching the open...

Oh you mean the 4th A from the bull from 94? If so, Elliot insofar as I'm aware wrote that a 4th shant breach the territory of the termination of the 1st lest it's a 1st extension or a failed impulse. Here's a wild thought: the pullback could be the 2nd, which generally doesn't have an sizeable ABC, and this could be the beginning of the 3rd impulse. Which would be wild if so. If you recall, the bull run began in an extension, starting at 1200.75 and the pulldown came all the way to 1202 I believe it was before that memorable 3rd took off.

I keep thinking about the slam at last month's pivot and being so close to this month's though.

They'll try for a third, so your 77 1/2 seems a well-thought-out-against-the-trend-thrill-seeking-scalp. ;) You're funny, Koolio.

locals having fun with the fish. back in one hour

Bought 65.5, and rolln'

Looks like a buy low, sell high day. The ES is at the VAL on the monthly so any more downside here I am buying, I think yesterday's high and todays low will set the range for this week.

The way I see it it's good at least for a test and ownership of the high. I'm pulling the plug at 73. The 4th primary of the 1st just kissed the gap. If it doesn't breakout soon, I'll bow out early.

Perhaps some visuals would help me on this..to be honest I can't follow it..I've tried following those who use wave analysis in the past but It just doesn't click for me.....Now I would fall into the perma - bull ( at least for now) category...but I think some downside would be constructive to further fuel the upside......

This is not meant for you specifically SPQR but I've seen so many folks who use waves not take credit when they are wrong....they instead come up with alternate counts or projections or time frames......I'd really like to see someone post consistent long term predictions in the S&P ? Can anyone do it ?

If you are the forums resident wave/measure move pro then I'd like to see a seperate thread so we can follow these predictions......

There is a sense of anger in your post as I read it......it seems the bears and bulls are both "stubborn"...the bears are more frustrated.....today the bulls won and we traded higher...it's only a matter of time that the bears get the break in prices they want...I really thought Mondays selling was going to start it but the bulls came back today to take back the sell off point...

Am I understanding you correctly that you are expecting a huge selloff that will take us way beyond the current lows ? You are expecting the bear flag to break this week? Will this new low be 50% off the highs? Is the 1300 area the high before the new lows forms....? Do you have a long term short position or is this a question about "being correct" on a market call...? I'm curious

It seems quite often we get our opinions in the way of our analysis...I'm not saying that you are doing this but in general I wonder how often our brain naturally gravitates to "evidence" to support the outcome we would "like" to see. I probably did this in my "Darlings" thread...

And to answer your question: Yes I did trade the bear market in 2000 and the one in 1987 ( not as a day trader).........and as you know I'm trading this one too......I think there is a real danger in letting our ego's into the mix....I think most here can decide if they want to be bullish or bearish...I think this sentence is a bit overdone...

"Blow your own accounts and spare the new traders here."

Now , on a lighter note....I saw the DEAD play in the late 80's and early 90's in CT.....what group where you in and what instrument do you play? Perhaps I cheered you on......I broke out my Les Paul Goldtop the other day and it was a real pleasure to play......

quote:

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Originally posted by SPQR

What does matter is that there are now two, three peak measured moves in this bull run; one corrected 67% and this one is suckering perma-bulls into fueling a downside move strong enough to penetrate the last of the channels at the 38% mark. 64 is price satisafaction. That's obvious. But what is also telling, as well as obvious, is so is the 70's for bears and the 13 huns, 90s and 80s let out a rejective sigh I know I'll never forget. But we're poised for a rally. Okay. You trade that, then.

We'll correct to the 40s, easily, bulls will try to run up but get suffocated by their own outerlining channels and we'll head-fake our way down into new market lows. Bulls etched their prices, showed they can satisfy price amid some strong selling and will let this bounce created by big swinging dicks conservatively covering die to make a bottom. And that wont be anywhere near 1200. The bear market we're completing the c wave from and out to match, lasted 2 1/2 years and wasted 805 handles. This just started. And by God when this bear flag breaks this week if you're long don't think stops will save your hide from ruin.

You guys traded the bear of 2000 to '02 did ya? Really?

Blow your own accounts and spare the new traders here. I'm sick of the perma-bull crap. This isn't going anywhere up here.

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