ES on 8-12-08

S&P had a narrow IB today (6.25pts)broke it at 10:30 markets are holding these lower prices okay at the moment. Bears are fighting hard for these 19.25 points off the high.

You know this thing's going to drop, but it always is such that it tricks you into thinking it'll be the session the consolidation begins. Ain't noone but noobs running up and down losing their money. Take the rest of the day off, go to bed early and set the alarm for 0200. It'll gap up and noone at night likes a gap up. It's someone's job to put a 2000 lot on the board butt early in the morning to drive prices down. Some market maker amped up on the bean and/or speed.

I'm serious. Call it a day.

Long again @ 1296.75

Something to keep in mind is that although price was rejected 1294.25, there isn't established price satisfaction long. The breakout level is 1295, you can probably breakeven if you're still long if you're patient. There'll be a double bottom and a failed bounce, but a measured move would be to 1288.25.

There was your breakeven. I hope you took it. ;)

Not for nothing, a look at my swing theory may help augment your style.

S&P closed below old resistance.

The exact same scenario happened on the 8th heading into the close: the gap held from testing PH; went on to test PL strongly and lost; after the close buyers made support out of the next pivot but were resisted by the proceding one; a sharp decline mounted then ensued at 00:00 on new averages and went on to gravitate toward PL only to find price satisfied by buyers there. The only difference is this after hours session looks unhealthier than the last retrace for the simple fact that the pivot resisting is closer to the buying support. Where this retraces' strength lay compared to the last one rests in the observation that the breach happened on the new trendline where buyers waged a 25 point increase from. Assuredly buyers are happy there, and as such I'ld be willing to bet that a whole slew of new capital was placed on a GTC limit at today's low at the close to continue the trend at, if not before, the open tomorrow.

The new standard deviation still points to a 51.50 point move from price satisfaction. If interested you can use today's low and manage the last few ticks of the entire swing. Too, I wouldn't use a tight stop on entry if you decide in favor of it. BSD will take it out.

You were stoked by the beginning of the first wave of the second impulse you caught 10 handles from? Wait until you see the third.

Make you some money.