ES on 8-12-08

S&P had a narrow IB today (6.25pts)broke it at 10:30 markets are holding these lower prices okay at the moment. Bears are fighting hard for these 19.25 points off the high.

Singles on todays MP @ 1296.5....If we make new lows before those get filled I'm betting on a trend down day.

Just an observation but the low (thus far) was one tick into yesterdays 9:30 buying tail.

A measured move from this frantic bull run up from the breakdown would be 1287, just below the previous low. The pivot held buyers from testing the high so the tendency then would be to test the previous low at 88 even. Considering 86 would be a 67% retracement from 1313.50, it's safe to assume this is the last bear directional move, as bulls are want not to lose the previous low.

I am long @ 1298.

I'ld take those two ticks and walk, Joe. :)

Naa.. 30min looks healthy, bad entry though.

If markets can hold this 1295.5 or highier till 11:30 looks like we'll get a range extension on the upside.

Covered @ 1301

8-06 Had a narrow IB and a gap down like today, a break down @ 10:30 a rejection of low prices and then a range extension to the upside very quickly. A typical nutral day.

With the kind of day this is should have reversed that last trade.

The exact same scenario happened on the 8th heading into the close: the gap held from testing PH; went on to test PL strongly and lost; after the close buyers made support out of the next pivot but were resisted by the proceding one; a sharp decline mounted then ensued at 00:00 on new averages and went on to gravitate toward PL only to find price satisfied by buyers there. The only difference is this after hours session looks unhealthier than the last retrace for the simple fact that the pivot resisting is closer to the buying support. Where this retraces' strength lay compared to the last one rests in the observation that the breach happened on the new trendline where buyers waged a 25 point increase from. Assuredly buyers are happy there, and as such I'ld be willing to bet that a whole slew of new capital was placed on a GTC limit at today's low at the close to continue the trend at, if not before, the open tomorrow.

The new standard deviation still points to a 51.50 point move from price satisfaction. If interested you can use today's low and manage the last few ticks of the entire swing. Too, I wouldn't use a tight stop on entry if you decide in favor of it. BSD will take it out.

You were stoked by the beginning of the first wave of the second impulse you caught 10 handles from? Wait until you see the third.

Make you some money.