Traders, Forums & Unbelievable Claims

Am I the only person here who finds it almost impossible to believe the performance claims by certain contributors claiming 1000+% returns?

To Kane, daytrading, pt emini et al: We all know that pips2007 is FOS so lets stop wasting our time trying to be rational and logical. At least Hemmingway was a prolific and great writer--that's where the comparison ends with this alcoholic meglomaniac.

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Originally posted by jimkane

Well, I'm the one who was doing that comparison, but ultimately, I think you just did the same thing. You mention 100% return. Say hedge fund traders get 30% or even 40%. I go on to say that in small lot daytrading you don't have the same liquidity issues, and perhaps you may be willing to take on a bit more risk. So, what figure might that point to (assuming the person is the best of the best)?

On the other hand, the claims in here have ranged from the 20,000% to 90,000% (on extreme daytrader margin) per year. Now, given that I am a mathematician by training and tend to think that way, perhaps too much to make my points clear to all, if you did a sliding scale (sure wish I could put a nice graphic in here), and put 30% on one end, and 90,000% on the other end, where would your 100% fall? So close to the 30% you'd probably not even be able to tell they were right there together (if the scale was 9 inches wide, the 30% and 100% would be separated by .007 inch (less than twice the thickness of a human hair) on the left side of the scale).

My point was, if you are looking at returns, get close to what has been consistently shown to be possible, and make the allowances you feel are appropriate for daytrading versus hedge fund trading, and look there. Don't start in the middle of my scale, or on the right side, like many do.

As an aside, there are lots of daytrading hedge funds, and although they do have additional liquidity considerations that small lot traders don't, some spend all day banging the ES with top of the line equipment, and they aren't getting better returns than the ones I mentioned, not over the long haul. Yes, I would think a good daytrader may be able to get a better risk unadjusted rate of return than the top hedge fund managers (but because of the unadjusted part I've yet to see one survive the long haul), but it would still be a single digit multiple of the hedge fund return, and when I did the example where the guy might be making 83% per year uncompounded, the consensus seemed to be that was a pathetic rate of return for a daytrader.

On another note, the reason I used hedge fund numbers is because there is no reliable source whatsoever for for daytrader returns over the long haul, so I was using the only reliable numbers that are available.

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Good post. You illustrated your point clearly and now I see what you're saying. I agree with you for the most part. Anyone claiming to make %20,000 consistently is full of ****. I've averaged over %100 returns for the past 3 years and I know that is very good but I never considered myself a super trader, I figured I dedicated more time to the markets than your average bear.

I did some follow up that I thought was better as its own topic:

ES Fun Math Facts

Ruvan how many pts did the market go up??? CASE closed. rougue can dry your tears...

ruvan you a weak trader...all complaints but no substance. Price and time..you now s**t...not one peep from you...but you the educated trader...lol.

same old same...my I'm going to be trading for a hedge fund and you still here..with your losing bs for all the traders.

Ruvan and rouge and all the losing posse...how many pts did the marke go up...you think you could have got your 6/10/20...but you too stupid..to many indicators, gurus, courses....sad lot..newbies stay away and make money.

rouge I did not read what you had to say..I don't read bs....but I made 10,000% last year on some of my commodity option trades...and I did some trades that cost me no money..use volatility to my favour...does free come to your mind..its like adding more contracts when you position trading...but its ok..you don't get it.

Its a pity...same old sorry traders..same old sorry losers...

Ruvan come talk to me when you trading a 50 million dollars..cause that what I am going to be trading...Never got your email your sorry old sod..big talk no cattle.

Finally, both ruvan and rouge are amateur..reason...If Warren came to then if 1965 and told them he buying Berkshire Hathaway a textile comapny...going belly up and he really knows how to invest...ruvan and rouge would give you their sorry BS analysis of why Warren was an idiot...no way he could make those returns....now of course everybody started hearing about Buffet in the 90's...but he was under the radar for so long..like 30 years. And now ruvan and his following...really think Buffet is a great investor. Pity if ruvan and his following met Buffet in 1965 or 1977 or 1982...they would think he is and idiot...no imagination and no thinking.....no belief. Like most investors and traders...but not me!!!

So newbies...if you want to make money...listen to what I've been saying 6/10/20 is always available in the market...you will get it most days if you get mkt direction correct...20 pts not always....if you want the same old same their is enuf of ruvan and rogue and his merry men losing money everyday.

What did the market do??? Give you exactly what I said and more..now who do you want to believe...the course sellers, educated traders or the street smart lot like ME...your choice.... Winner or the losing bunch. The Market is the proof.

3.5/3.0 % as i predicted in my posts 4-6 months ago...I made a killing in Eurodollar call options. Next week I trade for a hedge fund and ruvan still still on ticks and fleas....Ruvan mkt went up how many pts today.....and you only made 2 pts...maybe you lost..to many indicators...

Ruvan when you trading 50 million dollars let me know...I would love to challenge you...sod...you all talk. You know a CTA that will give you 100 million and you want a .50 fee...you really are a losing trader. Oh yeah the CTA knows you a losing trader too.. Anybody with confidence and skills and a winning trader would jump at the opportunity....but not YOU...Case close...you just another losing trader...oh yeah..how pts did the market go up today..

Good luck...Good night where every you are ....I'm going to make some real money and let you listen to ruvan and the other losers.

Its really tiring trying to get sense to stupid people..pity that is the majority..........

Hi Pips2007,

Although I appreciate your participation in the forum I feel that what your are writing is not helping anyone. As a community of traders we are trying to foster a spirit of help and support. I would greatly appreciate it if you refrained from making posts such as this in the future.

If you have something to say that will help a trader become a better trader then I welcome your comments. Stating that you made/make a ton of money and saying that you aren't going to share any specific setups is not helping anyone. Nobody is asking you to share your secret proprietary setups if you don't want to but I am asking you to refrain from posting unless you have something to say that could be used by your trading colleagues in a positive manner.

At the moment, nobody is getting a warm fuzzy feeling from your posts. If you decide not to post again and/or leave this forum then that is obviously your right but I'm not asking you to do that. Instead I'm asking you to help our trading community by using your experience and knowledge in a positive manner.

You have talked about mistakes that you've made in the past using certain systems or methods. You could for example speak about a popular setup that you lost money on when you were starting out and explain to us why that method doesn't work and how you discovered its flaws.

Thank you for taking the time to read this.

Daytrading..that is the best reply I've ever had..so contrite, diplomatic and to the point.

Yes I will give a suggestion or two.....no setups or methods.

Avoid courses any courses.....think about it..If the course seller could make a killing why would they part the information to you. They can't so they sell what everybody is selling...case closed. They pummel you with math and how a trader cannot make the pts I'm saying they can make..cuz they have to justify their course...all they are saying is I cannot do it.

Suggestion for newbies or traders that want to get better....find a decent caller..1 or 2 trades a day...look at a chart...longer term for daytrading...15,20 mins or whatever and do it for 6 months or more...no real money...paper trade...see the chart...the ebb and flow..see if price is low or high in relation to the range and weekly pivot. Time is another matter...and so is pressure....

Finally see how many pts the market moved up or down from the low or high or open.

When paper trading...run 1 contract at open either long or short with the help of a good caller as described above and see what happens..don't get out after 2/3 pts..let it run...The caller who tells you to go long is going to be good for 6/10/20 pts or he/she is wrong. If he/she wrong then he/she is going to pause and reflect or go short...now you lost 2 pts but you going to make 10 or 20 the other direction. But you paper trading...Simple..no courses, gurus...etc. My advice is don't buy any courses....you don't need daytrading education..you need to make money from a skilfull daytrader who can makes pts...few and far between..because a real GREAT TRADER is going to go to a hedge fund/ pensions fund etc or start one of his own...not sell courses.

In this manner of taking calls you will get the confindence the market goes up or down, your mind is geared to bigger targets and not scalping and the other nonsesn and you get an understanding of the ebb and flow of the market. Thats all you need to start....demo acct a good caller...no scalper stay away....and NO COURSES....trading is ABOUT MAKING MONEY...NOT BECOMING EDUCATED...there is enuf educated people who cannot trade worth ??? and they selling courses all over the place.

That's it....trust me...you will see how much you observe and learn...better than any course or indicators etc. Just do it on a demo for a month and see what happens.

I think I did my part....daytrading.

Good luck