Traders, Forums & Unbelievable Claims
Am I the only person here who finds it almost impossible to believe the performance claims by certain contributors claiming 1000+% returns?
It a shame but the same concepts of making claims and not backing it up brought down Voodoo and Hunterone......if your gonna say stuff on here you should be able to back it up and come through for us.....the human mind...it's amazing what people will do when they know nobody can see them....they then re appear as somebody else
ruvan,
I'm sure you've read some of my posts with regards to this very topic. Here are two free articles I wrote addressing this issue:
Realistic Expectations
Realistic Expectations, Part II
I've tried to understand why people attack anyone who makes any claims if they sell anything, but have no reaction for those that make similar claims but haven't offered anything to sell. I feel it is very damaging to newbies if the claims are not real (and can even be misleading if the claim is real, but the person is just exceptionally gifted, or on a streak right now (read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb for more on that)), and yet they don't get called on the line for it. If we are here to try to help newbies, I think the standards should be similar. Refer to my many posts on this topic about alternate possible structures for forums and such, and other thoughts.
I hope these articles provide the food for thought that they were designed to. I get a lot of comments back from people after reading them.
I'm sure you've read some of my posts with regards to this very topic. Here are two free articles I wrote addressing this issue:
Realistic Expectations
Realistic Expectations, Part II
I've tried to understand why people attack anyone who makes any claims if they sell anything, but have no reaction for those that make similar claims but haven't offered anything to sell. I feel it is very damaging to newbies if the claims are not real (and can even be misleading if the claim is real, but the person is just exceptionally gifted, or on a streak right now (read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb for more on that)), and yet they don't get called on the line for it. If we are here to try to help newbies, I think the standards should be similar. Refer to my many posts on this topic about alternate possible structures for forums and such, and other thoughts.
I hope these articles provide the food for thought that they were designed to. I get a lot of comments back from people after reading them.
Despite the praise he has received here, pips2007 is a prime example. Just because he's not selling anything (other than his own ego gratification) doesn't mean he's believable. In my opinion, he's not. Let him prove to this community what he claims is true.
ok ruvan...
I don't need to prove anything to you. You probably are small minded as a trader. Did I ever ask you for your money?? NO. Let me see...you probably doing the same old same MA bollocks, MACD, RSI, 1 min chart...you can't even go for a sh*t cuz you too afraid you will lose money.
NO confidence trader. If you don't know which way the market is going before it opens...you a loser..guess most of you traders are.
How many pts did the mkt go up this week and what pt did it it...yeah what point did it hit....you did not get 20,30, 40 pts cuz you just don't get it.
But you too ignorant to get it...to stupid....70 pts or more from the low..or whatever....but your trading method along with the rest cannot fathom anything greater than 2 pts a day. And then you think you good!!
You get an orgasm if you get 2 pts..cuz you too worried about losing any money so...2 pts to me is an tea..not even an appetizer.
Funny I dont really care about what you have to say..I don't care about you.
So, I wont post anymore.
You really must be like those people who make $10,000 a year and cannot fathom you can make $100,000 cuz your mind tells you...you a loser...there is no way you can ever become a winner. There is no way you can MAKE MORE MONEY...no way. All the gurus tell me you cant do that...
No different in trading....you believe what you want to.
So you can kiss my *** ruvan..I don't need to prove anything to you.
Go your merry way and I don't care.
As a matter of fact the only reason I post is to get people to THINK!! Unfortunately...if you stupid you want to be stupid.
So no more posts from me. I don't need any hassles from 2 bit trading players like you...
If you don't change your ways you get the same results now in 5 years and in 10 years...oops I'm talking to somebody who wants proof. Well go ask Jesus then!!!
I don't need to prove anything to you. You probably are small minded as a trader. Did I ever ask you for your money?? NO. Let me see...you probably doing the same old same MA bollocks, MACD, RSI, 1 min chart...you can't even go for a sh*t cuz you too afraid you will lose money.
NO confidence trader. If you don't know which way the market is going before it opens...you a loser..guess most of you traders are.
How many pts did the mkt go up this week and what pt did it it...yeah what point did it hit....you did not get 20,30, 40 pts cuz you just don't get it.
But you too ignorant to get it...to stupid....70 pts or more from the low..or whatever....but your trading method along with the rest cannot fathom anything greater than 2 pts a day. And then you think you good!!
You get an orgasm if you get 2 pts..cuz you too worried about losing any money so...2 pts to me is an tea..not even an appetizer.
Funny I dont really care about what you have to say..I don't care about you.
So, I wont post anymore.
You really must be like those people who make $10,000 a year and cannot fathom you can make $100,000 cuz your mind tells you...you a loser...there is no way you can ever become a winner. There is no way you can MAKE MORE MONEY...no way. All the gurus tell me you cant do that...
No different in trading....you believe what you want to.
So you can kiss my *** ruvan..I don't need to prove anything to you.
Go your merry way and I don't care.
As a matter of fact the only reason I post is to get people to THINK!! Unfortunately...if you stupid you want to be stupid.
So no more posts from me. I don't need any hassles from 2 bit trading players like you...
If you don't change your ways you get the same results now in 5 years and in 10 years...oops I'm talking to somebody who wants proof. Well go ask Jesus then!!!
Looks like pips wasn't the altruistic trader he presented himself to be after all. If anything, he proved my point by aggressively attacking and demeaning me as a losing trader, when he knows nothing about me. This is the talk of a person with a huge ego who proffers grandiose claims of success in a public forum and shares nothing of how that alleged success was achieved nor can he back it up to convince us he is who he purports to be.
I can't speak for anyone else here, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we took a poll and discovered the vast majority of traders in this community found pips claims of knowing which direction the market is going before it opens and earning scores of points/contract each day with no stops unbelievable.
Thanks pips for confirming my thesis.
I can't speak for anyone else here, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we took a poll and discovered the vast majority of traders in this community found pips claims of knowing which direction the market is going before it opens and earning scores of points/contract each day with no stops unbelievable.
Thanks pips for confirming my thesis.
ruvan..yes that was aggressive..but to wake you from your slumber.
Your thesis..its in the garbage where it belongs.
The market went ONE WAY ONLY DOWN and gave YOU 42.25 PTS TODAY....one more time..the market went ONE WAY DOWN and gave YOU 42.25 pts. I got 6/10/20 from the real world. This is called market DIRECTION.
I gather you were watching the market on the SP500....or busy working on your thesis.
If you came to me and told me you were a great trader...unlike most I would not care...I couldn't care about what you make. I only care about what I make. So I would not be concerned about your trading prowess. Some asked and I volunteered a few pointers...thats is.
Your thesis is made up of gigo- garbage in garbage out. Thats how most traders trading styles are...wrong thesis.
Solution you stick with your way..I do mine...
The market proved my thesis today and does everyday.
Your thesis..its in the garbage where it belongs.
The market went ONE WAY ONLY DOWN and gave YOU 42.25 PTS TODAY....one more time..the market went ONE WAY DOWN and gave YOU 42.25 pts. I got 6/10/20 from the real world. This is called market DIRECTION.
I gather you were watching the market on the SP500....or busy working on your thesis.
If you came to me and told me you were a great trader...unlike most I would not care...I couldn't care about what you make. I only care about what I make. So I would not be concerned about your trading prowess. Some asked and I volunteered a few pointers...thats is.
Your thesis is made up of gigo- garbage in garbage out. Thats how most traders trading styles are...wrong thesis.
Solution you stick with your way..I do mine...
The market proved my thesis today and does everyday.
6/10/20 again...
this is just too easy......simple...no fear = lots of money with price and time.
this is just too easy......simple...no fear = lots of money with price and time.
ZZZZ..again ....again.told you so....6/10/20..well actually the last one ..is still running..wait till close or 30 pts...1366...1336 is a harmonic number( time).
Jan 29...over 40 pts...6/10/20 up and down...Jan 28 6/10/13...
its all there in the market..the pts are all there...YOU only have to collect them...
BTW...50% rule...safest rule...1387.50 + 1331.50/2=1359.50...there it is....lets see 1336-1359.50= 23.50 pts. 50% target..proof is all there. Works especially good at certain time(s)every week.
we at 1381.50...maybe we get to 1389...I don't care...happy with 1366.
Now where is that thesis my friend ruvan was talking about..oh I forgot its in the garbage...my apologies.
I'm off to trade for hedge fund starting next week.
Thats all folks..learning session is over.
Good luck and all the best. You really are good traders...YOU just don't know it.
Jan 29...over 40 pts...6/10/20 up and down...Jan 28 6/10/13...
its all there in the market..the pts are all there...YOU only have to collect them...
BTW...50% rule...safest rule...1387.50 + 1331.50/2=1359.50...there it is....lets see 1336-1359.50= 23.50 pts. 50% target..proof is all there. Works especially good at certain time(s)every week.
we at 1381.50...maybe we get to 1389...I don't care...happy with 1366.
Now where is that thesis my friend ruvan was talking about..oh I forgot its in the garbage...my apologies.
I'm off to trade for hedge fund starting next week.
Thats all folks..learning session is over.
Good luck and all the best. You really are good traders...YOU just don't know it.
quote:
Originally posted by pips2007
ZZZZ..again ....again.told you so....6/10/20..well actually the last one ..is still running..wait till close or 30 pts...1366...1336 is a harmonic number( time).
Jan 29...over 40 pts...6/10/20 up and down...Jan 28 6/10/13...
its all there in the market..the pts are all there...YOU only have to collect them...
BTW...50% rule...safest rule...1387.50 + 1331.50/2=1359.50...there it is....lets see 1336-1359.50= 23.50 pts. 50% target..proof is all there. Works especially good at certain time(s)every week.
we at 1381.50...maybe we get to 1389...I don't care...happy with 1366.
Now where is that thesis my friend ruvan was talking about..oh I forgot its in the garbage...my apologies.
I'm off to trade for hedge fund starting next week.
Thats all folks..learning session is over.
Good luck and all the best. You really are good traders...YOU just don't know it.
That's fine and all until one day you you get the market direction wrong and it wipes out all the earnings you made for several months (I read that you don't use stops, hence my above statement).
Secondly, this is to address another poster, I don't think it's reasonable to compare retail traders to hedge fund managers etc.... getting %30/year on your money as a daytrader is more than possible, in fact it's quite bad if you're not hitting those numbers because most day traders would be out of business on those percentages. You can double your money with the leverage on futures if you know what you're doing, and you're not worried about fills because the volume is quite low compared to what those "super traders" are moving.
Well, I'm the one who was doing that comparison, but ultimately, I think you just did the same thing. You mention 100% return. Say hedge fund traders get 30% or even 40%. I go on to say that in small lot daytrading you don't have the same liquidity issues, and perhaps you may be willing to take on a bit more risk. So, what figure might that point to (assuming the person is the best of the best)?
On the other hand, the claims in here have ranged from the 20,000% to 90,000% (on extreme daytrader margin) per year. Now, given that I am a mathematician by training and tend to think that way, perhaps too much to make my points clear to all, if you did a sliding scale (sure wish I could put a nice graphic in here), and put 30% on one end, and 90,000% on the other end, where would your 100% fall? So close to the 30% you'd probably not even be able to tell they were right there together (if the scale was 9 inches wide, the 30% and 100% would be separated by .007 inch (less than twice the thickness of a human hair) on the left side of the scale).
My point was, if you are looking at returns, get close to what has been consistently shown to be possible, and make the allowances you feel are appropriate for daytrading versus hedge fund trading, and look there. Don't start in the middle of my scale, or on the right side, like many do.
As an aside, there are lots of daytrading hedge funds, and although they do have additional liquidity considerations that small lot traders don't, some spend all day banging the ES with top of the line equipment, and they aren't getting better returns than the ones I mentioned, not over the long haul. Yes, I would think a good daytrader may be able to get a better risk unadjusted rate of return than the top hedge fund managers (but because of the unadjusted part I've yet to see one survive the long haul), but it would still be a single digit multiple of the hedge fund return, and when I did the example where the guy might be making 83% per year uncompounded, the consensus seemed to be that was a pathetic rate of return for a daytrader.
On another note, the reason I used hedge fund numbers is because there is no reliable source whatsoever for for daytrader returns over the long haul, so I was using the only reliable numbers that are available.
On the other hand, the claims in here have ranged from the 20,000% to 90,000% (on extreme daytrader margin) per year. Now, given that I am a mathematician by training and tend to think that way, perhaps too much to make my points clear to all, if you did a sliding scale (sure wish I could put a nice graphic in here), and put 30% on one end, and 90,000% on the other end, where would your 100% fall? So close to the 30% you'd probably not even be able to tell they were right there together (if the scale was 9 inches wide, the 30% and 100% would be separated by .007 inch (less than twice the thickness of a human hair) on the left side of the scale).
My point was, if you are looking at returns, get close to what has been consistently shown to be possible, and make the allowances you feel are appropriate for daytrading versus hedge fund trading, and look there. Don't start in the middle of my scale, or on the right side, like many do.
As an aside, there are lots of daytrading hedge funds, and although they do have additional liquidity considerations that small lot traders don't, some spend all day banging the ES with top of the line equipment, and they aren't getting better returns than the ones I mentioned, not over the long haul. Yes, I would think a good daytrader may be able to get a better risk unadjusted rate of return than the top hedge fund managers (but because of the unadjusted part I've yet to see one survive the long haul), but it would still be a single digit multiple of the hedge fund return, and when I did the example where the guy might be making 83% per year uncompounded, the consensus seemed to be that was a pathetic rate of return for a daytrader.
On another note, the reason I used hedge fund numbers is because there is no reliable source whatsoever for for daytrader returns over the long haul, so I was using the only reliable numbers that are available.
Daytrading..that is the best reply I've ever had..so contrite, diplomatic and to the point.
Yes I will give a suggestion or two.....no setups or methods.
Avoid courses any courses.....think about it..If the course seller could make a killing why would they part the information to you. They can't so they sell what everybody is selling...case closed. They pummel you with math and how a trader cannot make the pts I'm saying they can make..cuz they have to justify their course...all they are saying is I cannot do it.
Suggestion for newbies or traders that want to get better....find a decent caller..1 or 2 trades a day...look at a chart...longer term for daytrading...15,20 mins or whatever and do it for 6 months or more...no real money...paper trade...see the chart...the ebb and flow..see if price is low or high in relation to the range and weekly pivot. Time is another matter...and so is pressure....
Finally see how many pts the market moved up or down from the low or high or open.
When paper trading...run 1 contract at open either long or short with the help of a good caller as described above and see what happens..don't get out after 2/3 pts..let it run...The caller who tells you to go long is going to be good for 6/10/20 pts or he/she is wrong. If he/she wrong then he/she is going to pause and reflect or go short...now you lost 2 pts but you going to make 10 or 20 the other direction. But you paper trading...Simple..no courses, gurus...etc. My advice is don't buy any courses....you don't need daytrading education..you need to make money from a skilfull daytrader who can makes pts...few and far between..because a real GREAT TRADER is going to go to a hedge fund/ pensions fund etc or start one of his own...not sell courses.
In this manner of taking calls you will get the confindence the market goes up or down, your mind is geared to bigger targets and not scalping and the other nonsesn and you get an understanding of the ebb and flow of the market. Thats all you need to start....demo acct a good caller...no scalper stay away....and NO COURSES....trading is ABOUT MAKING MONEY...NOT BECOMING EDUCATED...there is enuf educated people who cannot trade worth ??? and they selling courses all over the place.
That's it....trust me...you will see how much you observe and learn...better than any course or indicators etc. Just do it on a demo for a month and see what happens.
I think I did my part....daytrading.
Good luck
Yes I will give a suggestion or two.....no setups or methods.
Avoid courses any courses.....think about it..If the course seller could make a killing why would they part the information to you. They can't so they sell what everybody is selling...case closed. They pummel you with math and how a trader cannot make the pts I'm saying they can make..cuz they have to justify their course...all they are saying is I cannot do it.
Suggestion for newbies or traders that want to get better....find a decent caller..1 or 2 trades a day...look at a chart...longer term for daytrading...15,20 mins or whatever and do it for 6 months or more...no real money...paper trade...see the chart...the ebb and flow..see if price is low or high in relation to the range and weekly pivot. Time is another matter...and so is pressure....
Finally see how many pts the market moved up or down from the low or high or open.
When paper trading...run 1 contract at open either long or short with the help of a good caller as described above and see what happens..don't get out after 2/3 pts..let it run...The caller who tells you to go long is going to be good for 6/10/20 pts or he/she is wrong. If he/she wrong then he/she is going to pause and reflect or go short...now you lost 2 pts but you going to make 10 or 20 the other direction. But you paper trading...Simple..no courses, gurus...etc. My advice is don't buy any courses....you don't need daytrading education..you need to make money from a skilfull daytrader who can makes pts...few and far between..because a real GREAT TRADER is going to go to a hedge fund/ pensions fund etc or start one of his own...not sell courses.
In this manner of taking calls you will get the confindence the market goes up or down, your mind is geared to bigger targets and not scalping and the other nonsesn and you get an understanding of the ebb and flow of the market. Thats all you need to start....demo acct a good caller...no scalper stay away....and NO COURSES....trading is ABOUT MAKING MONEY...NOT BECOMING EDUCATED...there is enuf educated people who cannot trade worth ??? and they selling courses all over the place.
That's it....trust me...you will see how much you observe and learn...better than any course or indicators etc. Just do it on a demo for a month and see what happens.
I think I did my part....daytrading.
Good luck
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