Anyone have a forecast for today?


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  • davegemini
  • 18-Jan-2008 at 6:54 AM
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2008/01/18 Friday
FWIW, my forecast is: day's high 10:50, low 16:00 EST.

my system's intraday squiggles were "right on" yesterday's tracing out SP index's big drop. (broke 18 month low)
Dave
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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 4:28 PM
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NQ trade still open at the day session close with 5.75 NQ points of open profit at last tick.... will evaluate on the open of the AH session... as long as ES holds below 1362.00, I am comfy holding the short trade open for a while....
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  • nkhoi
  • 30-Jan-2008 at 12:35 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by davegemini

Not even close to a win today, Win/Loss = 5/2


invert day, that's know to happen time to time.
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  • davegemini
  • 30-Jan-2008 at 5:34 AM
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For the record, I am over-riding my system's
Wednesday Jan 30 Long 10:10 -> 15:00 EST
by a 14:00 EST bailout..

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  • davegemini
  • 30-Jan-2008 at 4:16 PM
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Whose afraid of the big bad fed? 'fraidy-cat dave was resulting in
his chalking up another loser. Win/Loss = 5/3

OTOH the system did:
1. predict the open down
2. predict the hi at 15:00

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  • pt_emini
  • 30-Jan-2008 at 4:42 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by davegemini



OTOH the system did:
1. predict the open down
2. predict the hi at 15:00



setting aside the Fed induced volatility, it was another excellent forecast Dave
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  • davegemini
  • 31-Jan-2008 at 3:03 AM
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Thanks, I have decided to count wednesday Jan 30 as a winner for the system, Win/Loss = 6/2 and a loser for Dave's Win/Loss = 5/3

In a previous inquiry about stops I replied:
"the system shud be evaluated without further entry/exit rules, WYSIWUG! "
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  • davegemini
  • 31-Jan-2008 at 3:47 AM
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I have examined the gif and chosen a early trade for "Dave's Win/Loss record"
Thursday Jan 31 Short 09:50 -> 11:40 EST
over the system's trade:
Thursday Jan 31 Long 14:10 -> 15:20 EST

I had decided to make a daily predict post no matter what. BUT
1. the delta point spread today is low meaning success probability of ANY trade today is reduced.
2. the Long trade window is only 1 hr 10 min. theoretically giving the earlier 2hr trade a better chance at success.

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  • pt_emini
  • 31-Jan-2008 at 8:13 AM
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sounds like the forecast is for a range day with early weakness and late strength ?
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  • davegemini
  • 31-Jan-2008 at 8:57 AM
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The result of averaging 4 algorithms that disagree is that the disagreement reduces the predict range and allows several reduced amplitude waves during the day to be forecast. I will be amazed if todays actual chart resembles the "noisy" predict chart posted.

Btw, my 2hr Short 9:50 -> 11:40 is actually 9:50 -> 11:50 (a typo)
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  • davegemini
  • 31-Jan-2008 at 4:19 PM
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Results:
Wrong day to try to Short the market, my beat the system Win/Loss = 5/4
However the system picks up 10 points Long winner today: Win/Loss = 7/2

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  • pt_emini
  • 2-Feb-2008 at 9:02 AM
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That 10:30am low forecast was impressive Dave.

Thanks for sharing your work with us here, hope to see you return again soon !
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