Anyone have a forecast for today?


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  • davegemini
  • 18-Jan-2008 at 6:54 AM
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2008/01/18 Friday
FWIW, my forecast is: day's high 10:50, low 16:00 EST.

my system's intraday squiggles were "right on" yesterday's tracing out SP index's big drop. (broke 18 month low)
Dave
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  • pt_emini
  • 28-Jan-2008 at 7:33 PM
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Another solid prediction Dave !

Fed/FOMC the next two days, what sort of track record does the model have against Fed day's & FOMC announcements ?
I agree, excellent correlation today, well done.
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  • davegemini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 5:53 AM
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Tuesday 29 Jan Short 13:10 -> 16:00EST

re: performance vs. Fed
there are insufficient examples to flat rule out trading on a "fed announcement day"

Its interesting to note that if short today is a winner thats dropping at the close, a weak opening is forecast for wednesday. so one could take a chance and hold overnite and do a reverse position trade at 10:10
(just a thought)..

Dave

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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 2:48 PM
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Market has built a nice value area since around 10am this morning.

Sometimes the market will choose a direction and break out of developing value in the last hour or two of the trading session and drive prices away from the POC.

Something to watch for given Dave's prediction of a weak close and weak opening tomorrow.
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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 2:58 PM
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ok i put on a little short in the NQ's up here at 1813.00 stop 1814.50

target if not stopped out will be to evaluate the trade at the close, as a hold into AH or exit.

market is acting like it wants to go higher into the close, let's see how this plays out...

also note ES is being pressed up against 1362.00 resistance.
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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 3:06 PM
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stop hit, so out of the short trade for a loss of 1.50 NQ
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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 3:28 PM
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ok trying one more time here on this 2T setup (ES 1366)...

now short ER2 at 707.5 and NQ at 1817.75.... usual stops in place... target close or AH hold...

need to see the ES reject 1366 and trade back down to support at 1362
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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 3:47 PM
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ES testing 62 support level... moved stops down to b/e
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  • pt_emini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 4:00 PM
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ER2 stopped at b/e - 2 ticks slippage on the way out... lol

NQ still rolling sideways along with the ES at nearby support

not sure we will even close inside developing value...much less below it (the original goal of this exercise)... lol
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  • davegemini
  • 29-Jan-2008 at 4:16 PM
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Not even close to a win today, Win/Loss = 5/2

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  • pt_emini
  • 2-Feb-2008 at 9:02 AM
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That 10:30am low forecast was impressive Dave.

Thanks for sharing your work with us here, hope to see you return again soon !
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