FOMC Fed Day 7 Aug 2007

The next FOMC interest rate announcement will be on the 7 August 2007.

More details and charts about Fed Days

CBOT Fed Watch

In advance of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting on August 7, the CME Group will be reporting daily rate change probabilities in the FOMC's federal funds target rate, as indicated by the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract. The 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract is a key benchmark interest rate barometer that reflects the forward overnight effective rate for excess reserves that are traded among commercial banks in the U.S. federal funds market.

Based upon the August 3 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the August 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 12.4 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 5-1/4 percent to 5 percent at the FOMC meeting on August 7 (versus a 87.6 percent probability of no rate change).

Summary Table
July 31: 92.6% for No Change versus 7.4% for -25 bps.
August 1: 92.6% for No Change versus 7.4% for -25 bps.
August 2: 92.6% for No Change versus 7.4% for -25 bps.
August 3: 87.6% for No Change versus 12.4% for -25 bps.
August 6: 87.6% for No Change versus 12.4% for -25 bps.
August 7: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.

Release Date: 7 Aug 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year. Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Although the downside risks to growth have increased somewhat, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.

What the 5 minute E-mini S&P500 chart looked like on this FOMC Fed Day.