ES WEEKEND UPDATE 8-20-22

The overwhelming question confronting investors is: Is it still a bear market? Or have we already started a new bull run? There are honestly good arguments for either one. i think those questions may be answered in the next 2 weeks. With seasonals turning strongly up, but cycles down through Tues. The most likely scenerio for me is continued decline for 2-3 days then a good rebound to complete the pattern. The .382. in terms of time is Tues and gdp on Thursday. The rebound could last till around the 29th or so , maybe even stretching into the holiday. Be aware that the 29th has been down 18 of the 18 years! And the next day the 30th has been up 17 of the last 25 years. No guarantees but those are pretty good odds. So far the possible wave pattern is playing out exactly, but dont get married to any conjecture because thats all it is.

Interesting stuff from Carl Swenlein the founder of Decision Point.....
It occurred to me that some of our primary indicators have created a teachable moment. Specifically, our short-term and intermediate-term indicators are both at fairly extreme overbought levels, and now is a good time to talk about what that means.

The Swenlin Trading Oscillators for breadth and volume (STO-B and STO-V) are near the top of their normal range, and that usually coincides with short-term price tops. The IT Breadth and Volume Momentum Oscillators (ITBM and ITVM) are also near the top of their normal ranges, and that normally coincides with intermediate-term price tops. With indicators from both time frames at overbought levels, there is strong technical pressure for prices to make a noticeable decline Conclusion: This condition occurs about every two to three months (see the red, downward pointing arrows for previous events), and it is fairly reliable as a top warning. While all four indicators are still rising, they are quite extended, so I would expect a price top soon, probably this week. Not guaranteed, just likely.