comments 4/20/06 (Thursday)

E bracket closed. IB is large at 10.25 points and E overlaps D excessively to the upside.

As expected the ranked pages have large IB's.

Our stats show us that 48% of the time we will see RE to the overlap side ONLY. I was curious to know if such an exagerated move in the E bracket above the D bracket would increase this probability. In order to ascertain the answer (roughly) I looked at the top 20 ranked profiles. All of them are good matches with large IB's of about the same size. 11 of these have RE up ONLY which is 55% and so roughly the same as our 48% probability.

My conclusion is that an exagerated move in the E bracket to this level does not increase the probability of the RE being to the upside ONLY.

At close of F bracket we have an unusual day. This makes it more difficult for The Ranking Page because there are fewer days in the DB to find matches from. You can see this from the very low Rank% of 43.5% for the top ranked.

The best ranked page though is (IMO) #2. The DEF brackets most closely match today's. If you look at the background to the market (use expand link) you can see that this day (4/27/04) made a new 10-day daily high just like we did today. Another similarity is that this day is also in the 2nd half of April and the PDTP is under 25% like today.