ES Thursday 9/21/2017

SHort at OR break 02.50 looking for 99.75

I am rewatchinbg the Market Awareness segment agin, now. Does this apply to weekly? It seems to be all about intraday.

Originally posted by BruceM

one last thing - just to keep track of things...at the start of the week there was an 86 % chance that we were to trade to 2515 on the cash or down to 2485 as per cash.....nether of those have printed yet and there is not much time left in the week.......

It also stated and I now vaguely remember, is they are referencing the Hi/Low range not the move off the close. I do not think that is the correct way to view expected move though.

This needs further study IMO.

Bruce have you seen the 86% number bear out on the weekly?

this idea is based off of the close......and yes it works on the weekly although it is not discussed in the segment on tasty trade......what I haven't tracked is the monthly or quarterly but the same logic applies.... when volatility changes from high to low then the bands will fail to be reached and obviously when it goes from low vol to high then the bands will be blown through with ease..... we have seen how inside bars on our daily don't reach the 1/2 sd move....lately it seems like once a week which is more than usual....it's all a function of volatility.......

the Expected move that Tasty trade is using is not the same as the Number in parenthesis to the right of the implied volatility number from the TOS software....that is something that TOS came up with on their own or bought from a vendor according to Preston.....if you look at your bittman slides you can plug in any number of trading days till expiration or trading days left for a particular cycle.......I don't think there is anything magical about them but a key idea would be to wait until a failure........
so if this week fails then I would expect next weeks bands to be hit.....( a failure usually implies that the range has contracted) ..this is no different then looking at an inside bar or low range bar and then expect a range to expand in the following time period

tomorrow - Friday we need about a 15 point move in order for our weekly 1/2 sd to be achieved from today's close on the cash

Draghi speaks overnight as well as prime minister May but other then that we have no US reports that would move the market

what do you use for opening range? thanks

I was taught it to be the first minute but the real reality is that traders would call into the pit of the big contract long before the emini ( the ES) became popular and they would get the opening range told to them by their broker...the person who taught me the pitbull methods called in every day for the range...it would literally would be just the first few seconds......then he would use 2.5, 4 and 5.5 points above the opening range high and use the same increments below the opening range low....I modified it just to use the opening print to have something to use for the ES.....

some like the first 5 minutes...some like 10 minutes....some even use the first 30 minutes......so to make a long story longer , there really is no set definition !