ES 6-5-17

Options are making a case to print or protect R1 up at 2442 or S1 down at 2429 area today....I'm bearish up here...but video goes over key areas ...more babble on it's way



price getting ahead of value examples



based on current Es options pricing they are not expecting closes beyond S1 or R1 today.......we shall see just how well the options folks can defend either of those areas the first time we hit one of them today....assuming we even can get that high or low but the idea is that the options folks may defend those one standard deviation moves which might help us with fades off those areas


edit again : basic primer of how I view these standard deviation moves and pricing from think or swim...there is much more information ( explained much better than I ever can online elsewhere) ...but this is how I think about it in relation to the day trading areas for confluence

I'm going to try and sell 36.50 as an experimental trade with small contracts ...I'm taking the 50 % market between the swing low before the gap in the data to the current swing high...if the market moves up ( before 36.50 prints) further I will recalculate and take the sell at the next 50% mark....will explain more later

this addresses this concept.....so far it is NOT working but this balancing day isn't over yet...let me repeat the plan a few more times...ha ! Just calculating the swing high to low and selling the 50 % mark

Originally posted by BruceM

I'm going to try and sell 36.50 as an experimental trade with small contracts ...I'm taking the 50 % market between the swing low before the gap in the data to the current swing high...if the market moves up ( before 36.50 prints) further I will recalculate and take the sell at the next 50% mark....will explain more later

at a price of 2437.25 options is only pricing in 3.25 points as a one standard deviation move now until we expire these monday options ...so getting down to 2434 area is darn close to one standard deviation and a place where we should close beyond only 16 % of the time...........today all roads ( market moves ) have been leading back to vwap...so if all this short term option hocus pocus is true then we shouldn't close far beyond 40 - 41 today either if they decide to forget about that gap in the data below..so perhaps they are telling us to still not expect large moves

wow - only one word for that exciting finish (can a 5 point range be that exciting ?) ......but that gap....... "awesome"