ES 5-19-17

Numbers and zones I'm looking at...going easy today, it's friday and prefer to see some mean reversion down from the 69 - 70 area to try and get to 65.50...will be watching breakout up in case they need to put in more tpo's at that weekly low....so i will be watching Volume/Ticks closely if we come out of YD's highs




a quick look at the weekly





how the options market is pricing moves today

here is the context for my last trade idea for the day which would be the short in the 86.50 - 87.75 zone

came out heavy at single fill...I didn't have time to give that out there but context video above says it all........notice where your r2 level was today also....I didn't go over number above on early video because I naturally didn't expect this rally ...If the market can resolve to sellers at this 83 - 84 area we have a chance at a good selloff......how about my gap in the data..? LOL...ok..my next target will try for 81.75 and then I will leave one on just in case ...either way no more trade initiations for me today.....I usually do things in three's with trading.......so I often will add in up to 3 times when averaging in, I will also take 3 campaigns especially if the first two just suck like today!! either way, wednesdays high and the low of 5-12 is the battle ground now

taking one of two runners off at my 81.75.....what I do sometimes and if conditions are right I will give runners a bit of room from original entry especially if there are numbers above that I would normally lean on like todays R2 level.....trying to get my gap in data,...F--k it...I went flat at 78.75 somebody else can go for that gap in data..

77.50 is still the gap in data....now a key point I want to make....I post a lot of stuff and I don't want to imply that this trade made my day....although it worked, I am still a net loser on the day...in terms of profits.......this last move down helped but didn't get me to break even....I made some key mistakes and cost me money and more important was my time.....I broke my own rules and was supposed to go "easy" today as per my plan...so I goofed it up and payed for it...


and let me add that I have losing days....I don't want to EVER imply that I don't and anyone who doesn't own up to that as a public posted is just a liar.....I prefer to keep most posts about "concepts" and only throw my trades out there because some find it interesting......

I'm throwing out the idea here that if you make some good money on your core position then there are times when you can give your final contracts more room to breathe........but I must add that the context is EVERYTHING when doing that and I don't ever leave more than 3 contracts on as runners ( today I only had two runners on) when working this type of plan......I think I am still just a small grunt and I think that is probably why I am still able to trade when many have blown out accounts.......


Gheesh...sorry for the friday sermon!!

took a one contract short at 80.50.......that gap is calling me......luring me in

here is what can happen when you get lured in...there is such a rock in Germany

http://www.uexpress.com/tell-me-a-story/2010/10/24/the-siren-lorelei-a-german-folktale

Originally posted by BruceM

came out heavy at single fill...I didn't have time to give that out there but context video above says it all........notice where your r2 level was today also....I didn't go over number above on early video because I naturally didn't expect this rally ...If the market can resolve to sellers at this 83 - 84 area we have a chance at a good selloff......how about my gap in the data..? LOL...ok..my next target will try for 81.75 and then I will leave one on just in case ...either way no more trade initiations for me today.....I usually do things in three's with trading.......so I often will add in up to 3 times when averaging in, I will also take 3 campaigns especially if the first two just suck like today!! either way, wednesdays high and the low of 5-12 is the battle ground now

One of the issues is averaging when and where. how do u average in? thanks. You videos are very helpful.

exiting at 78.25...just too close and we know they can torture us on gaps in the data

This is a complex question and depends on many things...the big two are your account size and your ability to develop zones to trade from....some could start out like this......2 contracts on original then 4 at next zone and 6 at last.....but you need to have some cash behind you.....you could also start with one contract but then you have nothing for a runner after initial target is hit...and what happens if you don't need to add....many should start with adding only one time until they build confidence.......but listen to this...In my experience most times it is best to take the loss and just try again....so don't get too caught up on the idea of averaging in...I'd rather see people take the loss and not be afraid to try again from their predefined zones....so don't be afraid to take the loser.....today was unique and certainly not my best way to trade....I also like to take 3 tries at an area....one of my other "rules of three"
....

Originally posted by Padmaja

Originally posted by BruceM

came out heavy at single fill...I didn't have time to give that out there but context video above says it all........notice where your r2 level was today also....I didn't go over number above on early video because I naturally didn't expect this rally ...If the market can resolve to sellers at this 83 - 84 area we have a chance at a good selloff......how about my gap in the data..? LOL...ok..my next target will try for 81.75 and then I will leave one on just in case ...either way no more trade initiations for me today.....I usually do things in three's with trading.......so I often will add in up to 3 times when averaging in, I will also take 3 campaigns especially if the first two just suck like today!! either way, wednesdays high and the low of 5-12 is the battle ground now

One of the issues is averaging when and where. how do u average in? thanks. You videos are very helpful.

hard to believe they brought it back to within 2 tics of that gap in the data.. a great example as to why we need to exit in front of those......lets see what the last 5 minutes brings and the settlement numbers

I couldn't agree more ( not the "I'm the dumbest person I know" part) that 99 % of the time it is just better to take the loss, clear your head and try again....

Originally posted by nolt

Interesting to see your gap in data thing Bruce, thanks for sharing.
The whole averaging in thing is hard to watch for me based on personal experience. Not judging those who do it at all!! (I'm the dumbest person I know, trust me) But when I have done it in the past with very defined areas to get in, it would end up being a trend day and massive pain would occur, my account just couldn't take the beating. So now I just take my lumps and look for the next trade...and today I just shut it down because the lumps were to large and to frequent. Hate going into the weekend, as if I just spent a night in prison.
Good weekend to all!!

Thanks again Bruce for sharing your thoughts and making the vids!!