MP Spoos Mar 23rd
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Did you mean less than 1310 in the chart?
If Friday has a 35% probability of being an outside day then and given your comment in other postings I am guessing that you are NOT looking for an inside day but for a down day testing the week's lows...
If Friday has a 35% probability of being an outside day then and given your comment in other postings I am guessing that you are NOT looking for an inside day but for a down day testing the week's lows...
I was looking for a lower low and a higher high for that is the definition of an outside day. I assigned a probability factor of 35% to it which in reality is actually quite high. As it turned out we did not make the new low resulting in some form of neutralisation for the market. Regrettably the FED statement is the key on Tuesday.
What I was trying to say was that if a trader did NOT expect an Inside Day that it did NOT imply that the trader expected an Outside Day (for example).
By not expecting an Inside Day could also imply that one was expecting the prior day's high or low ONLY to be overlapped which would not be an Outside Day etc.
By not expecting an Inside Day could also imply that one was expecting the prior day's high or low ONLY to be overlapped which would not be an Outside Day etc.
I suppose that what I'm trying to say is that there are 4 scenarios for a day when talking about Inside and Outside Days:
1. Inside Day
2. Outside Day
3. High only overlap
4. Low only overlap
So if 35% probability was assigned to #2 then the remaining 65% probability would be distributed among the other 3 which would mean that an Inside Day (#1) would receive a less than 65% probability of occurrence.
1. Inside Day
2. Outside Day
3. High only overlap
4. Low only overlap
So if 35% probability was assigned to #2 then the remaining 65% probability would be distributed among the other 3 which would mean that an Inside Day (#1) would receive a less than 65% probability of occurrence.
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