ES Monday 9-19-16

we don't have the benefit of the overnight yet and this is being posted on Sunday but these are the key levels so far i will be working with ...also an explanation of gaps in the data is here.....



some more information on volume which might point to a bigger down move in spx......





from 2000 - 2015 the SPX has had some floor trader WEEKLY number trade and hit 97 % of the time.....the weeks that had no test or only one test of some number saw the following week have at least TWO numbers hit !

From 2010 - 2015 the ES futures back adjusted December contract has hit some number 96 % of the time on a weekly basis!


From 2002 to the present 99 % of the time in spx we hit some Monthly number

early gap in the data at 41.50...I think you'd need to get in somewhere around 43 - 44.50 to make that gap worth it....juts pointing it out for the ones looking at gap in data examples

do you got the gap at 43 at 835 bar?

Very high odds we will tag two floor trader numbers today...I am hoping we pop up to hit the 41 ( the r2 and then clean up the gap in the data at 43 ) and then we roll over to tag the 36.5 in RTH today...if we open and drop down to the 36.5 first then we will need to decide if they will try to push back up to the 41 or drop further down to the 29.75 pivot......the closest weekly floor trader number sits down at 32....so in general I have a bearish bias coming into this opening but the overnight high and past single print area of 44 will help guide us....

it is also possible but not as probable that they will hit the R2, take out the overnight high and travel all the way to the R3 at 52.25 but I'm not leaning on that ...current overnight has a gap in the data at 43....so if the 36.5 - 38 starts looking like support then we may need to be nimble and get long and use the 41 and 43 as targets ...don't let gaps in the data blind you and suck you into taking bad trades...they aren't perfect....bold intentional


Look at last Fridays video as to why 38 is also on the charts today and why I think 36.5 - 38 is the most important zone for us this morning

yes but I'm not gonna be blinded by it....we need to be careful about those gaps but I see it

Originally posted by duck

do you got the gap at 43 at 835 bar?

over night midpoint is 37.87..my plan is to buy around the rat number and target is the gap 43..i wish is the OR line up with that too..

I think that's a good plan.......just keep an open mind and if that 36.5 is giving away then keep in mind they may have it in their plan to go get the weekly pivot and the daily pivot number today

Originally posted by duck

over night midpoint is 37.87..my plan is to buy around the rat number and target is the gap 43..i wish is the OR line up with that too..

buy stop at 40.75

fill at 40.75

well, there is one floor trader number....I'd like to see that gap in data fill to hunt shorts.....otherwise I will look for shorts as an alternative if we hit back to the open and start making new lows on the day in RTH assuming that the 36.50 the second floor trader number they want today...haven't taken any trades yet today in rth

starting very light on shorts at 42.50...plan is to go in heavier at gap in data fill if it comes.....volume really lightening up now.....it might be wiser for me to buy atm put options.......I think the midpoint and 36.50 are part of the plan today....this kind of trade can see those big thrusts up or down quickly and then go back to a slow motion trade...not my favorite type of opening....so that's my way of saying I am concerned we may see the thrust up to run out that gap in data and overnight high

fascinating huh ? I think as long as 32.50 - 33 holds back any drop now they will go " clean up " that 37 area too...not trading either

Originally posted by duck

i got 3 gap in data..one at 35 two at 37 and three at 37.75..just pointing them out not trading