ES Friday 8-19-16

Big Mike, the study I used to come up with those statistics posted yesterday ran from May 17, 2001 - May 14. 2012 ( compliments of data I poured through from Paul) regarding the overnight midpoint tests. I have since kept track of them and they still hold up so we are looking at 15 years worth of data. Here is how the week is unfolding so far with the major levels marked by arrows. I will look at overnight and isolate todays areas to formulate some key numbers in the morning. My initial feeling is if we can run out of buyers in the 84 area then they should push back to high time back at 79 area. Otherwise 88 - 89 is the next major level in this volatility



edit : morning update - I like using 79 as magnet still for RTH but given the small range I will also take OR breaks in order to try and target the Overnight high or low....98 % chance we will get a midpoint or Overnight high or low and 94 % chance we will get a Overnight range extreme........the only tricky part today is that at 1 pm is a key report for those watching other markets but I think the range should expand enough to give us a good trade this morning....not much more to say...OR should be smaller then yesterdays to give us more reasonable stops if using just that range.....some use a function of the OR range as an initial target ...so go back to yesterday and see if you could have tagged TWICE the OR range once it was broken !

if u need action go to the track or casino....just passing by here Duck....what probabilities are u going for...? an overnight range and a daily range is broken, the midpoint is tested....I didn't run floor trader numbers but I'm sure one of those hit....these issues are hard for us to help u with if you break discipline and trade for some other reason besides money !!!

Originally posted by duck

took short at 77.50 stopout at 79.25 reversal to long..dam i am being fool again.i am drug addict..need action

you are so right..now i am trying to think why i got into this trade..it broke the OR to the upside..those 84 look like they want to be taken out..and had a loss so trying to make it back..and ema are point up on the 1 min chart..yup excusess for the trade nothing more..enjoy the weekend

well a broken clock is right twice a day..exit all 4 at 81.25

bruce and mike i know i got some soul searching to do on the weekend..just want to thank you for the post and you and everyone have good weekend.

well I hope it goes for ya Duck...I see a gap in data at 79.25 and market is at 81.50 so I hope they ignore that gap and go get your target...ok, nuff said...gotta get back my pre party work.....c ya

Originally posted by duck

you are so right..now i am trying to think why i got into this trade..it broke the OR to the upside..those 84 look like they want to be taken out..and had a loss so trying to make it back..and ema are point up on the 1 min chart..yup excusess for the trade nothing more..enjoy the weekend

oopps ..didn't c this...glad u r out

Originally posted by duck

well a broken clock is right twice a day..exit all 4 at 81.25