ES 8-16-16

Magnet is 83 area again and am trading for that now...the overnight hit into my other numbers mentioned yesterday too at the 80.50 and I also have a line at 79.25.....no midpoint test yesterday so I expect that to happen today.....so taking longs at 81 or less is ok here in pre market but keep in mind that we could still drop lower and create a lower priced midpoint...

74 - 75 is another area on downside


EDIT: 39 years ago today I was on Vacation in California with my folks as an unfocused 15 year old....one morning I woke up and my mother was in tears......The KIng was gone.....so here in honor of that....I give you the king...where were you ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6UJLZOGOMk

stopout at 80.. good to start trading this method today..it has broke OR 4 times already..my trades so far 1) long at 81.75 stopout at 80.50=2.5 loss 2)short 80.50 exit one at 78.50 and 79.25= plus 3.25 (should of had minus 4 but made a mistake) so it should be plus 6. 3) long at 81.50 stopout at 80=3 loss 4) didnt take the trade other mistake..so loss today so far is total 5 points 250 bucks which is nothing if from my other trading losses which where 500-1000.....if your wondering i got out of yesterday trade with 100 win yup held all day..got lucky ..now it looks like i could of got two more points on the 4 time it broke..but then again who knows..that the big difference between paper trading and real money..

in theory the OR should be used as the filter...long above and short below....but we are also looking at targets and the plus and or minus 4......but a critical thing is not to over trade it....if you get a minus 4 to hit then should we be trying for a plus 4 ? I don't think so...and you really just want to go for some probability....I had midpoint at 82.5 and a key number at 83 which was a high time price...so do I want to take breaks of the OR high a second or third time ? probably not especially since we already got a minus 4 and had a great trade....one or two good trades and that's it.......look at the probability matrix and see what is left to trade for ? ...not much...

Originally posted by duck

breaking rules already or am i..i use 1.5 stop which put it at 80 but it broke OR low..so i should be short right ? what you think bruce?

bruce thanks for all your input..i am going to post all my trades and i hope that you dont hesitate to say anything..i cant believe how good i feel with a 250 loss...lol well enjoy the rest of the day..

that's cool Duck ...I think the goal ( Bruce climbs onto his soapbox) of any trader should be to trade LESS and not more...brokers want you to trade more, paid chat rooms want to keep you engaged and paying each month calling potential turns and sucking you in to take trades but I think this is way off the mark. There is a real danger also of being at a job and trying to trade all day. I see it on other forums and if these folks were making so much money trading then they wouldn't need to be at their job. I know this may come across as ego to some on my part but it isn't meant to be. I feel you must define a time period to trade and then close down the platform and walk away or find some way not to put on real trades anymore. A big problem is that many see the chart after the day is over and say "wow, how come I couldn't catch that move or why wasn't I trading at that time, I could have made a fortune"....this is stinking, thinking and just wrong. I have nothing against those who have jobs and trade but I implore anyone to just choose one time of day and stick to it.. Don't get sucked in. you can make a lot of money if you can consistently take 2 points out of the market and then build size over time but people get impatient. I have been guilty of all these trading sins.

Just last night I was thinking about the time I tired out a big contract S&P 500 service while I was at my programming job. They claimed to call direction risking one point....well that was the fastest I lost 500 bucks in my life...LOL...and I've done many more blunders and still make mistakes...

Gap in the data at 79.75 so once again this is a thin market...be careful and please try to find a time that works for you whether you work a job or not.....the more time you stay trading at the screen the more you will lose ! Ok, that's my Tony Robbins speech for the day. Use the OR for one or two trades early on if that is your plan and combine it with price targets. OK, gotta get back to my Elvis vigil !

Nice synopsis Bruce...
I always wonder whether your trading plan works off of, Points of interest, Trading LVN's, Trading off the Opening Range, or looking to trade for the O/N midpoint...I don't understand why it seems only the first hour or two are the prime times to trade and not the whole day. If you get a "legitimate" setup, what ever that may be, why not trade it? I do understand though that the morning and the last hour are about the best times to trade according to most. Just a thought

Trade well you guys.. Sharks

I guess I just don't want to encourage people to sit all day for 6 hours in the hope that a legitimate trade sets up. It wears you down and messes with most peoples power of focus , concentration and mental state. Suppose you sit for 6 hours and never get a good setup or suppose you have to sit for 5 1/2 hours until a trade sets up and then make $50 on a trade ( in this example) then you are making less then $10 per hour.....there are also many health reasons not to sit in front of a screen and you can search the studies on back pain and what screens do to our eyes.

It's a much different story though if you are required by your current job to be at a screen and happen to see a trade set up and can do both your job and trading. I'd rather see people on our forum become the minority and become the specialists who really know how their time of day works. This is just my point of view and if it works for most to be at the screen then by all means sit there. As a back pain sufferer I want absolutely nothing to do with sitting on my ass all day. I understand the first 90 minutes the most and how it trades. Other times of day trade differently and it is usually very hard for people to mentally switch and adapt from trends to pauses etc and different trading styles.


so that's my reasoning and I guess in talking with traders for many years it seems that over trading and revenge trading are two of the biggest killers of their careers. So limiting market time can help eliminate those two. Just my opinion and doesn't mean that I am correct !

Thanks for the input Sharks.

Originally posted by sharks57

..I don't understand why it seems only the first hour or two are the prime times to trade and not the whole day. If you get a "legitimate" setup, what ever that may be, why not trade it? I do understand though that the morning and the last hour are about the best times to trade according to most. Just a thought

Trade well you guys.. Sharks

Thanks Bruce,
Your the best and I respect your opinion immensely. I think you put into perspective for me about the ass time etc..

Sharks

Duck,

The 12:02 post of bruce's is gold for you.

Taking today for instance,

Long @82.25, stopped out @80.50 1.75 loss
Short @80.50 stopped at @77.25 3.25 win

Net + 1.50 on the day and walk away.

On a day that didn't start your way, you're up 75 per contract. Better than a sharp stick in the eye as they say.

Let me say a few words about Bruce. He has an uncanny ability to keep track of his levels in real time. While the levels are determined ahead of time, being able to use them correctly is NOT easy. Not many can trade like Bruce, take my word for it he is in the top X% of retail ES traders IMO. Trying to emulate him will be detrimental to your progress IMO.

Take some nuggets from here and apply them to a simple mechanical type of trade, after you've mastered that setup (6 profitable months in a row), then you can try to add a 2nd setup.

For immediate confidence on the OR trade, here's what I would-have- done. Take a years worth of 1M charts and plot all the trades. 1st trade goes, you're done. 1st trade bad, take 2nd break. 2nd trade does, you're done. 3 trades max.

Then drill down and see what your returns would be after filtering. Filtering fro what? Is the open outside of YRTH range, how does it do after NR4-7 days, WS 4-7 days? Anything speak to you? That's how you would trade it. Do not feel the need to trade every single OR, there is plenty of money to be made on 2 points per 10 trade per month.

Good luck.