ES 8-15-16

I'm looking at 83.25 as a magnet price today in early trade There really isn't too much to say due to to this diminished price action . Faders will want to see what happens outside of last weeks highs up at 85.25 and we currently have an Overnight high at 85.75. Best thing would be to see a weak breakout up and then a roll over to the 83.25. I've also created a zone at 79.50 - 80.50 in case we can get a nice minus 4 run today. I'm not sure that will happen but that is my additional area. I think we can also still stick to our OR trades as long as the OR isn't bigger than 2 points and if it is then still use a 1.5 point stop anyway.

If we break out above last weeks highs and don't quickly return to the breakout point then I would be careful fading ( selling) as Mondays have a higher rate of failure in terms of probabilities going back to the overnight midpoint...so we may not hit the midpoint if that happens!

The mechanical traders should do well today but I wouldn't flip more than 3 times to try and get the minus or plus 4 ...

good luck and I hope the day goes well and you get done quickly today

88.75 will be the plus 4 off the OR today if it can print........OR can be a good filter if you don't mind those days that flip through it a few times....today isn't one of those so far

tricky part of today is that we know they don't usually just blow through weekly highs or lows without multiple tests ......so getting that plus 4 might take lots of patience and i wouldn't be surprised to see us at least re enter the OR range a few times from higher prices

as long as we stay above the OR we need to assume the plus 4 will print....it's all you can really do if u r trading mechanical...u can't over think it but I always think it is best to scale out on something in case they torture you or decide that they are gonna roll it over down to the 83.25 magnet...once again this is where a multiple contract player has an advantage.....the one contract player can still do well but would need to hold longer and get that plus or minus 4 and give up some potential small gains which usually seem to fall in the 2 point range.....Big mikes players are taking two points off the highs so perhaps we should too....at least as an initial target.....so you are risking the width of the OR to make two points......most days that is almost a 1 to 1 risk to reward or slightly better

here i am again holding a losser from 87.75..lol

gap in the data at 89 and in this volatility they have all been filling in so I think if you can take a short that can give you 1.5 points of profit for that target then it's worth a try for that target....



another thing...we opened out of range and value so OR trades are more effective usually when that happens.....but they never seem to be easy

i sitting wish i took that OR trade instead of this one..ah hindsight..my stop is at 91.50 it was 90.75 but i move it...which is a bad idea ..so when i get stop out of this trade..i swear from this point forward i am only doing the OR trades..i feel like a dumb a$$ now..discretionary trader i am not..

even if this trade works i am only doing the OR trades..cant handle the emotion stress..i still think i will be stop out

u r being too hard on yourself....we've all been there and continue to make trading errors.......the nice thing about the OR trades is that we can have SPECIFIC defined rules tailored to our trading style and account size etc.......If the emotional stress of a fader is too much then just do the Or trades as u mentioned , they work well and there isn't as much thinking involved......so that gives us a tremendous freedom and can make the trading process easier to handle.........so just DECIDE here today that you will do the OR trades and not mix and match trading styles...I think that's smart Duck and nothing to beat oneself up about......get excited about it instead !!!



I'm looking for 89 retest and call it a day.........this is small contract fade and I am playing in overtime today

Originally posted by duck

even if this trade works i am only doing the OR trades..cant handle the emotion stress..i still think i will be stop out

well nice trade there bruce..yes i do have to beat myself up..if i dont i will let myself off the hook and take trades here and there..but at the same time i am getting excited too..i hate to admit this but i have been doing this over 25 years and still not profitable year..i lose 10k a year ..yup alot cash gone and 2 wife..i am just lucky to have good paying job and time to trade..So i will be starting out with account balance of 8500.i am going to trade 2 contracts with that account..margin for me is 1500 per contract..in your opinion is that to many contracts or not enough to that account size?

I think starting with two contracts is the way to go but don't be in a rush to increase size too quickly......when volatility picks up , and it will soon I think you will want to see if you can hold a second contract for a bigger move and maybe even adjust first target from 2 points to 4 points ....get real comfortable with OR trades in all market conditions and most important is to see your results at the end of each week.......looking at a daily p/l with OR trades can mess ya up ....and don't lose more than $300 per day on OR trades.....that would basically be three failures on reversals in a row in this volatility.....just take the loss and wait for the next day...I really want to see a day where we have multiple flips that don't get a plus or minus 4 so people can see the true pitfall and " worst case" scenario

Originally posted by duck

well nice trade there bruce..yes i do have to beat myself up..if i dont i will let myself off the hook and take trades here and there..but at the same time i am getting excited too..i hate to admit this but i have been doing this over 25 years and still not profitable year..i lose 10k a year ..yup alot cash gone and 2 wife..i am just lucky to have good paying job and time to trade..So i will be starting out with account balance of 8500.i am going to trade 2 contracts with that account..margin for me is 1500 per contract..in your opinion is that to many contracts or not enough to that account size?

Look at that ...these markets are just too funny...they stole our magnet price in the overnight. R we suppose to sit by the screen all day and all night now ? I don't think so ! For me it will remain mostly the first 90 minutes of RTH as usual but it's always interesting to take a peak at other times