ES 8-10-16

78.75 is my magnet price this morning so I prefer shorts from higher prices...ideal would see a push up into 81 - 82 that runs out of power and flip over for sellers to drive it back down.......other magnet would be 76 on downside.....we can use the OR idea again and get some practice trying for the plus or minus 4 but in summer trade there are days where this could take all day ......


but keep the plus 4 in mind in case buyers take over and try for new weekly highs...my preference is to see what happens down at the 78.75 and the 76...


you will find that quite often in low volatility the OR trades happen very close to other numbers and areas of interest which make them harder to take sometimes....on the flip side we can use a standard 1.5 point loss and try up to 4 times ( so we don't lose more than $300 per contract on the day) to try and get some winners.....my suggestion is that if you have a loss then the first order of business is to make up that loss if given the chance......so turning a profit may require trading more than one contract when you stop and reverse when wrong....hope that makes sense


edit: made as market is open...here is tricky part with OR trades...do we trade for midpoint of overnight and take the low breakdown or take the breakout of OR high in order to get overnight high? for me I'm on the short but not from OR trade...bottom line is that sometimes the OR highs and lows do not give the best trade initiation locations...hnece my comments last week to trade the OR mechanically and not over think them....

77.50 was Overnight midpoint on my data...so with a 1.5 OR range you would have risked 1.5 points to hit an initial target of only one point....so I think with the OR trades you need to really target some multiple of the OR to make it worth it over time.......for example if OR is 1.5 points then try to get twice that as an ultimate target to make the risk reward worth it especially for a small contract player...trading multiple contracts doesn't change the risk to reward but lets you scale out and take some $$$ out in case the market reverses on you

current RTH low matches lows from yesterday in the afternoon session...this is all low volume players in here...that should get run out again and hopefully further selling into 76 and lower

minus 4 is 75 today plus 4 is 83 which would almost break yesterdays RTH highs and complete that 85 % probability of NOT having and inside day...so if we take out OR high it is something to think about

bruce i got the open at 79.50 which makes -4 at 75.50..who data wrong?

i edited my post duck I have open at 79 even...we need some more input from others

that's me done on 75 print..........hope all do well today....overnight low is nearby but I find they can torture us for overnight lows and highs some days

trying to by 75 rat number

unload one at 76 holding one with stop at 74.25

Thanks, Bruce. Nicely done.

I had an OR low of 78.50 so you would have made the 3 points ( twice the OR range ) today

69 - 71 is possible support zone if anyone is playing down here.... cya tomorrow