MP Spoos Mar 20th

I wasn't expecting us to be stuck in this sideways pattern for this long with a new multi-day/month high. Appears that we have found value and all the shorts are happy to be holding losing positions.

I agree with your breakdown bias but the market isn't drawing in enough new shorts yet and the longs that got long at the beginning of last week have plenty of cushion to sit on with this new contract.

Last week was bullish as expiry week usually is.

was I that far off the mark. Well I suppose in some respects I was. I had anticipated from the profile that we would break but the boys decided they wanted one more hand job to really get everyone long with the push up to retest the highs and only then did they in the space of 2.5 hours proceed to not just wax the market but retire a few traders hurt never to retun as their accounts melted away.

Problem is: If you get stopped out in the next push, where do you get short again? In essence, the next push is where you want to get short but you're in the process of being stopped out there unless you're averaging in: a dangerous game...

To answer your question in advance: It depends on unfolding value and speed of price action but if the market is going to make a break up this week post the FED then 1331 is not an unreasonable level to consider but you will need confirmation if you want to hold a swing by a break back into previous distribution before you will feel comfortable.

Confirmation is tough and very subjective. What do you use for confirmation? Multi-day profiles or something outside of Market Profile?

confirmation is objective. a break back into previous distribution. I use MP first and foremost that does not mean to the exclusion of all else. Tradional T/A is very powerful too but tends in the main to be a lagging indicator whereas MP unfolds in real time

When you say a "break" back into distribution I assume that you mean a rally right? (I usually associate the word "break" with a drop...)

So for you, confirmation is when we return to where we'd originally been distributing: i.e. the 1315 to 1321 area.

no a break means down. you origianlly asked where to see the market and that is what I have been discussing. so 1331 with a break back sub 1321 . capiche

does not imply that is what is going to happen nor even my bias. I m just saying that where would I sell the market well if we arn t going to break down then now I would want a premium and 1331 strikes me as a perfectly goodplace to try a short but until 1321 gave way then one would always fell anxious about the position. Now the other side of this coin is what happens and what to do if we break down. well that is obvious isn't ? everyone will buy it scraming and kicking all the way down and then will ask why its going down. I have stated on many occasions recently this a market that buys strength . if it buys strength then one would hardly expect to buy weakness as well.

capiche