Range estimation - weekly IB's for Monthly

I have read and seen video presentations where the instructor says you can estimate what the monthly range will be using the first two weeks of trading of that month and adding/subtracting that range to the two week high or low ( the same way many use the first 60 minutes and estimate off that)..Now this may be a stupid question but does this equate to using the first 10 days of trading for the new month? If it doesn't then how are most looking at it? Thanks

Bruce

That's a good question. Do you use the first two weeks starting on or after the first day of the month or can the first week overlap the end of the previous month and by how much? If the 1st of the month is on a Friday then is that the first week?

I would encourage you to download free OHLC data from Yahoo finance and put it in a spreadsheet and use the formula you have to see which ones work the best. The date/time formula in Excel are very powerful and you can probably compare as many different methods as you can think of and see which one most accurately estimates the range for the month.

After you've done this exercise you'll know that the way your approach this is accurate and you don't have to rely on someone else's formula.

Of course you have to have a bit of time on your hands to do this. If I used this info and had the time I'd offer to do it but unfortunately I don't and I haven't - my apologies.

Bruce: MP101 & MP102 that I did for the CBOT last year reveal that.
The presnetations are available from the CBOT website or even from my own

Daily: IB is first 60 minutes
Weekly: IB is first 2 days
Monthly: IB is first week
Quarterly: IB is first month
Annual: IB is first 2 months
Different quarterly distributions for differnt markets. Bonds are Feb/May stocks are Jan/Mar

That's easy to understand and calculate but what are we talking about? A rolling IB or a calendar IB? On Monday and Tuesday do we ignore the Weekly IB or use last week's IB?

I am under the impression that most MP traders use the calendar concept when computing their profiles and IB's. I'm not saying that this is wrong or right. If you can make excess profits from that then more power to you.

AlleyB

Didn't you say in one of your presentations that the IB to calculate the monthly is the first two weeks of trading instead of one week...? PLEASE CLARIFY...THANKS...

Bruce